AI will change the world II
The rise of Homo deus
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Key takeaways
1. Artificial intelligence accelerates evolution, transforming Homo sapiens into Homo deus, heralding an era of unprecedented human-machine integration
2. Harnessing AI's potential unlocks unprecedented advancements in medicine, technology, and efficiency, while also stoking a new techno-political Cold War and ethical dilemmas
3. Amidst AI's transformative journey, humanity stands at a crossroads between unparalleled innovation and the pressing need for thoughtful stewardship
Homo sapiens emerged from Africa about 300,000 years ago. Their heads were exceptionally large for mammals, housing large brains that were able to create complex social structures and tools. Their heads were so large in fact that newborns were born relatively undeveloped so that their heads were able to fit through the human female birth canal and required a long childhood to fully mature. They created a number of tools including fire, the wheel, and the steam engine. Their latest tool - artificial intelligence (AI) - has the potential to artificially accelerate the evolutionary process, which to date has been regulated by biology. In short, Homo sapiens are becoming Homo deus.
I published the article “AI will change the world” in April 2023, 12 months ago. Since then, the development of AI has progressed at a stunning pace. “Agents” allow Large Language Models (LLMs) like ChatGPT to perform complex tasks autonomously, like coding. AI is discovering new materials, until now beyond human humanity’s reach. New life-saving drugs are being developed. And AI is being used to target and kill on the battlefield. For the original “AI will change the world” post, I used a Diego Rivera mural to illustrate the article, “Man, Controller of the Universe”. For this post, I prompted DALL-E, a generative AI illustrator from OpenAI, “give me a mural about humanity’s discovery of AI in the style of Diego Rivera” and the result is above.
In this post, I’m going to discuss some of the applications of AI you can use today, the popular backlash to AI, and the rise of Homo deus, our evolutionary successor.
Applications
In the words of a friend, using AI today is like having a team of interns available to you at any time. Online search is made easier, by just giving the answer instead of pages of blue links. AI jumpstarts writing anything, brainstorming, and proofreading copy. In a business meeting, you should reserve an empty chair for AI, who can contribute ideas and other content. Like a teammate, all of its ideas may not be perfect, so it should be thought of as only one input, to be refined.
I have another friend who is using AI to code programs that automate his job. He has no programming experience and is using only natural language. In Silicon Valley, software developers have been made significantly more productive by AI and the team size required to start a new business is smaller. This means less funding is required, there will be more startups, and more problems will be solved for consumers.
All applications for AI aren’t being used benignly and China and the US are engaged in a new technological Cold War. AI is being used by the military to surveil, select targets, and control lethal drone swarms comprised of off-the-shelf consumer drones. The military balance of power has shifted. Why spend billions on aircraft carriers, tanks, and airplanes when they can be defeated by cheap, AI-empowered, commercial drones?
Backlash
Despite all the exciting possibilities of AI, a majority (52%) of the public is “more concerned than excited” about AI[i]. Fear of a new, labor saving technology is nothing new, with the invention of the plow and the horseless carriage being two notable historical examples. So far, all inventions have led to more human flourishing and enabled the population to explode.
Fear of AI is hyped by a new twist, popularized by movies like “Terminator” and “The Matrix”. In this vision of the future, AI enslaves humanity and uses their physical bodies to power a simulation that keeps their virtual minds occupied.
In 2024, AI data centers are already consuming immense amounts of electricity. The US electric grid is expected to be stressed without major investment and AI is expected to consume the equivalent amount of electricity per year as Germany by 2026[ii].
These popular fears introduce the risk of over regulating AI. Some light regulation is necessary, but too many rules risk making the US less innovative in AI and ceding its power to other countries. This technology will be developed somewhere, if not in the US then in China, Russia, or the Cayman Islands. As an American, I want AI developed in America.
Homo deus
In the longer term (still within the lifespans of most people reading this), it is likely that AI will extend human lifespans by curing diseases and introducing life extending therapies. AI will probably usher in a period like the Enlightenment, with massive advances in science and technology. Humans will probably leave earth and create intelligences indistinguishable from consciousness. At that point, when humans are intertwined with their tools to an extent previously unimaginable, will it be accurate to call ourselves Homo sapiens? Or have we evolved into something else?
Homo deus is the next phase of human evolution. There are great opportunities: solving climate change, unsustainable debt loads, and freeing up people for more creative, fulfilling lives. There are equally great risks. Whatever happens, it cannot be stopped. The fuse has been lit and no amount of regulation or collective action can stop it.
I for one, am cautiously optimistic.
[i] https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2023/11/21/what-the-data-says-about-americans-views-of-artificial-intelligence/
[ii] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-24/cryptocurrency-ai-electricity-demand-seen-doubling-in-three-years