America’s hypersonic Achille’s Heel
We’re told that the US military is the strongest in the world. Is that true?
Key takeaways
The US faces a strategic vulnerability in hypersonic technology
The US now confronts a shift from counterterrorism to great power competition with Russia and China
Urgency is needed to close the hypersonic gap
The Soviet Union launched Sputnik 1, a manmade satellite that orbited the earth, in October 1957. The achievement shocked the public – America had no such space capability in 1957 – and spurred a multi-decade space race that ultimately culminated with America’s moon landing in 1969.
The Chinese launched a hypersonic missile that flew around the world at many times the speed of sound in the summer of 2021 and it was reported on by the American media. Despite the US not possessing such a capability, which could render US missile defense systems ineffective, the news was lost in the cacophony of domestic media noise and failed to galvanize the public like Sputnik. The US is working on hypersonic technology, but a prototype won’t be ready until 2027[i].
This week, it was reported that Russia has developed a new anti-satellite capability that violates the 1967 Outer Space Treaty, implying that they plan to put nuclear weapons in space. The details have not yet been released but regardless, it should be a wake-up call to the US that our military advantage is eroding.
This post will analyze the history and importance of American hypersonic development.
The Global War on Terror
After the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001. The US spent two decades fighting the Global War on Terror (GWOT), which included major engagements in Iraq and Afghanistan. The US developed proficiencies in signals intelligence, special operations, and counterinsurgency. These three proficiencies combine into America’s singular ability to kick down a door on the other side of the world and eliminate a target. America’s investments have reflected this proficiency. But the GWOT is giving way to an era of great power competition with Russia and China.
Era of Great Power Competition
The buildup of the Chinese military has been ongoing since the 2000s and China is building a force to combat the US in Asia, particularly within the First Island Chain (which includes Taiwan and the South China Sea). Notably, China is building up its Navy, including adding aircraft carriers, as well as its stockpile of nuclear weapons. Russia since the days of the Soviet Union has prioritized defense spending and its military punches above its economic weight. Russia has challenged US geopolitical interests in the Middle East, Africa, Central Asia, and Eastern Europe, particularly in Ukraine. The Chinese and Russian militaries have conducted joint exercises and their alliance threatens US interests globally, notably in the emerging battleground of the arctic. The GWOT is over and has given way to great power competition, but the US is spending historically little on defense as a percent of GDP.
Figure 1: US defense spending as a percent of GDP
Furthermore, the Congressional Budget Office reported this week that America will spend more on debt interest payments than defense in the 2024 budget. This budgetary constraint will remain until significant reforms are enacted to spending and/or the tax code.
Hypersonic Missiles
The definition of hypersonic is traveling at 5x the speed of sound. “Ballistic missiles can travel at hypersonic speeds, but they follow a predictable flight path, making them easier to intercept before hitting a target. Cruise missiles, like the U.S. Tomahawk, can maneuver, but most travel more slowly, under the speed of sound. Hypersonic missiles combine speed with the ability to fly at low altitude and maneuver in flight, making them more difficult to spot by radar or satellite. That makes them almost impossible to intercept with current systems.”[ii]
Figure 2: Hypersonic vs. ballistic trajectories
Using these weapons from land against ships is difficult to defend against with current US missile defense technology, neutralizing US power projection through the Navy. In China’s case, hypersonic missiles can reach as far as the Second Island Chain, which includes Guam. The Chinese call such technology the Assassin’s Mace[iii], because it neutralizes conventional military superiority. Like Goliath facing David, US military superiority is neutralized by hypersonic anti-ship missiles.
America’s near-future
Taiwan Strait
December 2024
The 2024 US Presidential election brings a change of administrations and the Chinese use the leadership transition to impose a naval blockade on Taiwan. Satellite images show Chinese forces massing on the mainland side of the Taiwan Strait and an amphibious assault on the island appears imminent. A combined American and Japanese naval fleet is positioned to interdict the blockade, but Chinese anti-ship hypersonic missiles, for which defenses are ineffective, ensure heavy losses and possible defeat. The American President must decide whether to engage. But which president? And can the American aircraft carriers be put at risk?
Closing the gap
The hypersonic gap is unacceptable and it renders the otherwise superior US military ineffective in some of the most strategic flashpoints America faces today. This gap should be a major issue in the 2024 US Presidential election to raise public awareness. The Wall Street Journal has reported that RTX (formerly known as Raytheon) is developing the weapon, but a prototype won’t be ready until 2027. That is too late.
The Department of Defense should competitively bid a hypersonic missile contract to the five prime US defense contractors on an expedited basis. The contract should be awarded to the top three bids within one month, so the project can be worked on in parallel. Contractual incentives should be included for speed to deployment. A similar process should be undertaken for naval hypersonic defense, which aren’t expected until 2034[iv] at currently requested funding levels.
[i] https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/hypersonic-missiles-america-military-behind-936a3128?st=o06ki9kyc7ye5m1&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
[ii] https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/hypersonic-missiles-america-military-behind-936a3128?st=o06ki9kyc7ye5m1&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink
[iii] Pillsbury, Michael. The Hundred-Year Marathon: China’s Secret Strategy to Replace America as the Global Superpower. St. Martin’s Griffin, 2016.
[iv] https://www.defensenews.com/opinion/2024/01/19/the-us-is-failing-to-quickly-field-hypersonic-missile-defense/