April 9 2024
South China Sea
1 Significant and growing chunk of Americans in poverty
2 TSMC to build 3rd semiconductor plant in AZ
3 Trump does not support national abortion ban, instead supports state-by-state rules
4 Chinese population falling
5 Biden to warn Beijing against meddling in South China Sea
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4/9/1865 Robert E. Lee surrenders
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1 Significant and growing chunk of Americans in poverty
Some of the country’s savviest economic trend predictors spend all day answering call-center phones. Operators at 211 emergency helplines raised alarm bells about a baby formula shortage ahead of the headlines about empty shelves. And they knew that families were defaulting on their mortgages before the subprime collapse in 2008. Now, even as the economy looks healthy by many measures, 211 workers say they are hearing something concerning: more people living very close to poverty than the federal poverty line might suggest. The disparity aligns with polls showing high levels of consumer malaise despite recent good news like cooling inflation, low unemployment and strong hiring in March. United Way, the nonprofit that operates about half of the country’s 200-plus 211 centers, and other poverty researchers blame that disconnect partly on the federal poverty line, which they say hasn’t kept up with the real cost of living. The share of households below the census-designated federal poverty line has barely budged since 2010. Meanwhile, poverty researchers say a large and fast-growing group of people are earning too much to qualify for social services and not enough to afford the basics where they live.
United Way calls this population ALICE, or Asset Limited, Income Constrained, Employed. The organization says about 36 million American households, or 29%, met the criteria in 2021, the most recent year for which data is available. That is up 18% from 2010. Preliminary data show the same trend continuing through 2022.
2 TSMC to build 3rd semiconductor plant in AZ
The Biden administration will award up to $6.6 billion in grants to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, the leading maker of the most advanced microchips, in a bid to bring some of the most cutting-edge semiconductor technology to the United States. The funds, which come from the bipartisan CHIPS and Science Act, will help support the construction of TSMC’s first major U.S. hub, in Phoenix. The company has already committed to building two plants at the site and will use some of the grant money to build a third factory in Phoenix, U.S. officials said on Sunday. TSMC will also increase its total investments in the United States to more than $65 billion, up from $40 billion.
3 Trump does not support national abortion ban, instead supports state-by-state rules
Former President Donald Trump on Monday said abortion should be left to the states in the post-Roe era, declining to endorse any national limit on the procedure. His announcement, shared on Truth Social, is likely to disappoint anti-abortion groups who hoped he would use his bully pulpit to endorse national restrictions on abortion, especially after his campaign floated a 15-week ban earlier this year. Trump instead said that it was “up to the states to do the right thing” on abortion, painting Democrats as “radical” on the issue.
The announcement highlights Trump’s recognition that abortion has dogged Republicans on the campaign trail since the fall of Roe v. Wade nearly two years ago — and his primary goal of winning the 2024 election. He has chided other Republicans for speaking “inaccurately” on abortion, intimating that severe restrictions have cost the GOP winnable elections. On Sunday night and again Monday morning he urged people to “follow their heart” or their religion but encouraged voters to remember the stakes.
Donald Trump sidestepped a position on national abortion restrictions Monday, betting that the move would be his best chance to neutralize Democrats’ most animating issue and keep his rematch with President Biden focused on immigration and the economy. Trump, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, gave his long-awaited stance on abortion policy in a video released by the campaign. He didn’t mention the number of weeks at which he thought the procedure should be banned, instead saying that what states decide should be respected.
4 Chinese population falling
China’s ruling Communist Party is facing a national emergency. To fix it, the party wants more women to have more babies. It has offered them sweeteners, like cheaper housing, tax benefits and cash. It has also invoked patriotism, calling on them to be “good wives and mothers.” The efforts aren’t working. Chinese women have been shunning marriage and babies at such a rapid pace that China’s population in 2023 shrank for the second straight year, accelerating the government’s sense of crisis over the country’s rapidly aging population and its economic future. China said on Wednesday that 9.02 million babies were born in 2023, down from 9.56 million in 2022 and the seventh year in a row that the number has fallen. Taken together with the number of people who died during the year — 11.1 million — China has more older people than anywhere else in the world, an amount that is rising rapidly. China’s total population was 1,409,670,000 at the end of 2023, a decline of two million people, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. The shrinking and aging population worries Beijing because it is draining China of the working-age people it needs to power the economy. The demographic crisis, which arrived sooner than nearly anyone expected, is already straining weak and underfunded health care and pension systems.
5 Biden to warn Beijing against meddling in South China Sea
President Joe Biden will warn China about its increasingly aggressive activity in the South China Sea this week during summits with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. Two senior US officials said Biden would express serious concern about the situation around the Second Thomas Shoal, a submerged reef that is one of many contested features in the Spratly Islands. The Chinese coastguard has used water cannons to prevent the Philippines from resupplying marines stationed on the Sierra Madre, a rusting ship that Manila intentionally grounded on the reef in 1999 in an effort to reinforce its claims to the feature. Biden will stress that the US-Philippine Mutual Defense Treaty applies to the Sierra Madre, said the officials, adding that he expressed “deep concern” when he spoke to President Xi Jinping on Monday.
Ed note: China has been extremely belligerent in the South China Sea, egged on by nationalists like the tweets below show. Ad Astra believes the situation in the South China Sea is more dangerous to US-China relations than Taiwan.
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4/9/1865 Robert E. Lee surrenders
Thanks for reading!
Excellent commentary, as always, Greg.