Issue 22
1 The US does not have enough munitions for a contingency in the Indo-Pacific
2 US drone strike in Iraq raises prospect of wider war
3 GOP Speaker and delegation visit southern border as lawmakers face upcoming government shutdown
4 US factory construction booms as supply chains reshore
5 Great North American Eclipse April 8
1933 Construction begins on Golden Gate Bridge
1 The US does not have enough munitions for a contingency in the Indo-Pacific
In early 2023, the U.S. transferred 300,000 155mm artillery shells from its War Reserve Material stockpile in Israel to Ukraine. At the time, it was the only conflict with heavy U.S. involvement. After Hamas’s Oct. 7 terrorist attack, that’s no longer true.
Now, Israel too has requested munitions, putting a strain on already stretched U.S. stockpiles and calling into question both the Defense Department’s munitions planning and the budgetary priorities of congressional appropriators. The U.S. military is already tasked to do more than it has been equipped to do. At present, our armed forces do not have the munitions needed for a contingency in the Indo-Pacific region, and we certainly aren’t producing enough munitions to sustain operations in all three theaters at once.
Heritage https://www.heritage.org/defense/commentary/the-us-needs-more-munitions-deter-china
2 US drone strike in Iraq raises prospect of wider war
A U.S. Special Operations drone strike in Baghdad on Thursday killed a senior figure in an Iran-linked militant group that is part of Iraq’s security apparatus, drawing sharp criticism from the Iraqi government, as well as allied groups.
A missile fired by the drone struck a vehicle carrying three men near the logistics headquarters for the 12th brigade of the group, Harakat al-Nujaba, killing a brigade commander known as Abu Taqwa and two others, according to Iraqi security officials. The group, closely linked to Iran, was designated as a global terrorist organization by the State Department in 2019.
Ed. Note: This strike follows
• A blast in Iran, the largest since 1979, that killed 100
• An Israeli drone strike in urban Beruit, Lebanon
• Also in Lebanon, a militia supported by Iran, said that four of its members had been killed in an Israeli air strike
• Skirmishes with Houthi pirates in the Red Sea that have disrupted global shipping
3 GOP Speaker and delegation visit southern border as lawmakers face upcoming government shutdown
House Republicans threatened on Wednesday to starve the entire federal government of funding if President Biden and Democrats fail to institute a crackdown at the U.S.-Mexico border to choke off the flow of migrants streaming into the country. The warning came as Speaker Mike Johnson led a visit by more than 60 House Republicans to Eagle Pass, Texas, to raise pressure on the president and Democrats to agree to strict new immigration policies.
4 US factory construction booms as supply chains reshore
5 Great North American Eclipse April 8
The celestial spectacle of 2024 will be the “Great North American Eclipse.” On April 8, the moon will get in the way of the sun, darkening the Earth during the day time. The eclipse’s broad path starts in Mexico, crosses into Texas, continues up through Arkansas and Missouri into Southern Illinois, crosses into Indiana and Ohio, then darkens western New York and states in New England before ending in Canada’s eastern provinces.
This day in history
1933 Construction begins on Golden Gate Bridge
It would open in 1937, less than the average US permitting time today
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In depthIn depth
Biden to keep Trump tariffs
The Biden administration is moving toward keeping many of former President Trump's controversial tariffs on some $300 billion in Chinese imports in place, and aims to increase duties on electric vehicles and some critical minerals, three sources familiar with the matter tell Axios.
Axios https://www.axios.com/2024/01/05/biden-keep-many-trump-china-tariffs
DPP candidate leads in Jan 13 election, polling blackout effective
Ed. Note: Taiwan has a presidential election January 13 with significant geopolitical implications. The current ruling party is the DPP, whose candidate, Lai, is currently leading in the polls. The DPP is anti-China and Beijing considers them separatists. The other parties are more accommodating to Beijing. There is a polling blackout between now and election day.
The polling blackout starts in a few hours, so let me say a few things really quickly [about the polls.]
All of them show Lai leading. In most of them, Lai’s lead is under five points. However, there are a couple in which he leads by double digits. In all but one poll, Hou is in second place. His lead over Ko is usually more than five points, and in some polls it’s in double digits. However, there are a few in which the two are very close and one in which Ko leads Hou.
In 2016 and in 2020, Tsai led the final polls by large margins, often by more than 20 points. Of course, there is always uncertainty in democratic elections, but we could go into Election Day fairly confident about who would win, and the main question was how big her victory would be. This year is not like that.
The polls suggest that Lai is the most likely to win, but it is no sure thing. Likewise, the polls suggest that Ko will finish last, but that’s also not written in stone. Hou is most likely to finish second, but I wouldn’t bet my house against him either winning or coming in last place. This is one of those elections where we have to wait until they count the votes. The crystal ball is pretty cloudy.
And remember, there are still 10 days to go, and we won’t have any polling during that period. Lots of crazy things can happen in that time to make all this previous polling irrelevant.
Frozen Garlic blog https://frozengarlic.wordpress.com/2024/01/02/the-final-polls/
(Economist)
Russia has used North Korean missiles in Ukraine, is seeking Iranian missiles
U.S. intelligence officials have determined that Russia has acquired ballistic missiles from North Korea and is seeking close-range ballistic missiles from Iran as Moscow struggles to replenish supplies for its war with Ukraine, the White House said Thursday. Recently declassified intelligence found that North Korea has provided Russia with ballistic missile launchers and several ballistic missiles, National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said. Russian forces fired at least one of those ballistic missiles into Ukraine on Dec. 30 and it landed in an open field in the Zaporizhzhia region, he said.
AP https://apnews.com/article/3601a979e91d19c94e7d0fe27a398669
South Africa accuses Israel of genocide in Gaza
the 84-page “application” that South Africa filed with the International Court of Justice (ICJ) on 29 December 2023, accusing Israel of committing genocide against the Palestinians in Gaza.1 It maintains that Israel’s actions since the war began on 7 October 2023 “are intended to bring about the destruction of a substantial part of the Palestinian national, racial and ethnic … group in the Gaza Strip. That charge fits clearly under the definition of genocide in the Geneva Convention, to which Israel is a signatory.
John Mearsheimer Substack
Chinese firm becomes largest cobalt miner in world
CMOC group, a Chinese mining company, became the world’s biggest cobalt producer, boosting its production by over 170% in 2023 to overtake Glencore, its Swiss-based rival. But surging output and falling demand for consumer electronics caused the price of the metal, which is important for making batteries, to tumble by 30% in 2023.
Economist http://espresso.economist.com/7ca595cd7955654b36629c1470763487
Indian navy responds to piracy
India’s navy says its warship is moving towards a hijacked Liberian-flagged vessel in the Arabian Sea, and aircraft are closely monitoring the situation.
ChatGPT-maker in talks with dozens of publishers to license content
OpenAI said it is talking to dozens of publishers about striking deals to license their articles, a broader effort than was previously known, as the start-up looks for content to train its artificial intelligence (AI) models.
“We are in the middle of many negotiations and discussions with many publishers. They are active. They are very positive. They’re progressing well,” Tom Rubin, OpenAI’s chief of intellectual property and content, told Bloomberg News. “You’ve seen deals announced, and there will be more in the future.”
OpenAI recently inked a multi-year licensing deal with Politico’s parent company Axel Springer for tens of millions of dollars, a person familiar with the matter previously told Bloomberg. In July, OpenAI announced an agreement with the Associated Press for an undisclosed amount. These deals are key to OpenAI’s future, as it is balancing the need for updated, accurate data to build its models with growing scrutiny about where that data is sourced from.
One of the companies it had been in talks with, The New York Times, sued OpenAI and Microsoft for using articles without permission
SCMP https://www.scmp.com/tech/tech-trends/article/3247356/openai-talks-dozens-publishers-license-content
