Issue 32
January 19, 2024
FLASH Congress passes stopgap funding bill until March, averting shutdown
1a Global maritime choke points
1b The Bab el-Mandeb Strait I: Houthis
1c The Bab el-Mandeb Strait II: Ethiopia
2 Arab nations develop plan to end Israel-Hamas war
3 US cancer rates rise
1/19/2004 The Howard Dean scream
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FLASH Congress passes stopgap funding bill until March, averting shutdown
1a Global maritime choke points
International trade is constrained by eight primary maritime chokepoints, hard realities imposed by immutable geography. The United States has long recognized a vital national security interest in ensuring freedom of navigation through each of them. Half of these eight global chokepoints are dispersed widely. Only one each can be found in Europe (the Strait of Gibraltar), in Africa (the Cape of Good Hope), in East Asia (the Straits of Malacca), and in the Americas (the Panama Canal). Unfortunately, the other half of these critical chokepoints are all concentrated in a relatively small region where southwestern Asia meets Europe and Africa: the Bosporus Strait, the Suez Canal, the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, and the Strait of Hormuz. This area also happens to be the most important single source of the energy required to sustain global economic growth. Those two facts explain why US presidents keep rediscovering the need to focus disproportionately on the Middle East, despite their often-heartfelt desires to do otherwise.
This Atlantic Council
1b The Bab el-Mandeb Strait I: Houthis
As the US ramps up strikes against Houthi rebels in Yemen, it seems to be risking the lives of its service members and expending pricey high-tech munitions to help out its greatest geopolitical rival: China. Of course, the US is acting to protect international shipping and keep sea lanes open, both worthy goals. But China, which sends 60% of its exports to Europe through the Red Sea, will inevitably be one of the biggest beneficiaries if US and British forces can quell the Houthi attacks. Meanwhile, the Chinese navy has not dispatched a single warship to the region even though it has a task force on an anti-piracy mission in the Gulf of Aden, not far away. This is not evidence of Uncle Sam’s foolishness. It is merely the latest illustration of the asymmetrical nature of the US-China rivalry.
Bloomberg
1c The Bab el-Mandeb Strait II: Ethiopia
Tensions in the Horn of Africa have escalated after landlocked Ethiopia reached a memorandum of understanding with Somaliland on January 1 that gives it access to the sea.
Somalia says its sovereignty and territorial integrity have been violated by the pact and has appealed for international support. Somaliland is a former British protectorate facing the Gulf of Aden which declared its independence from Somalia in 1991, a move not recognised by the international community. Under the January 1 deal, Somaliland agreed to lease 20 kilometres (12 miles) of its coast for 50 years to Ethiopia, which wants to set up a naval base and a commercial port on the coast. For years, Ethiopia, with a population of approximately 100 million people, has sought access to the sea after Eritrea broke away from Addis Ababa and formally declared independence in 1993 following a three-decade war. The Horn of Africa country currently relies on neighbouring Djibouti for most of its maritime trade. In Ethiopia, where for much of 2023 the government stressed the economic need for a seaport and even subtly hinted at possibly invading Eritrea for access to the Red Sea, the deal is being portrayed as a victory.
Al Jazeera
2 Arab nations develop plan to end Israel-Hamas war, create Palestinian state; Israeli support unlikely
Arab states are working on an initiative to secure a ceasefire and the release of hostages in Gaza as part of a broader plan that could offer Israel a normalisation of relations if it agreed to “irreversible” steps towards the creation of a Palestinian state. A senior Arab official said they hoped to present the plan — which includes the prize of Saudi Arabia formalising ties with Israel — within a few weeks in an effort to end the Israel-Hamas war and prevent a wider conflict erupting in the Middle East.
After Hamas’s October 7 attack killed at least 1,200 people, Israeli officials warned that the war in Gaza would last months, while Benjamin Netanyahu has ruled out working with the western-backed Palestinian Authority and rejects a two-state solution.
FT
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Thursday rejected calls from the United States to scale back Israel’s military offensive in the Gaza Strip or take steps toward the establishment of a Palestinian state after the war
AP
https://apnews.com/article/73d552c6e73e0dc3783a0a11b2b5f67d
3 US cancer rates rise
Cancer rates are rising for many of the most common cancers, including breast cancer, prostate cancer and melanoma, a new report found. Colorectal cancer is increasing for patients under age 55, part of a demographic cancer shift that is skewing younger for reasons that aren’t completely clear. These increases, along with persistent disparities, threaten the progress made over the past three decades in reducing cancer deaths.
WSJ
1/19/2004 The Howard Dean scream
At an energetic rally on the evening of January 19, 2004, Democratic presidential hopeful Howard Dean emits a noise that many will claim ended his career in electoral politics. The “Dean Scream,” as it quickly came to be known, was a unique and revealing moment in early-21st century American politics. A former three-term governor of Vermont, Dean was seen as the candidate of the Left and was the only Democrat who openly criticized the Iraq War in his campaign for the party’s nomination. He was considered a frontrunner despite conservatives’ attempts to depict his campaign as a “left-wing freak show,” but finished third in the Iowa Caucuses. Despite losing the first contest of the primary to John Edwards and eventual winner John Kerry, Dean took the stage that night with enthusiasm. He ended his remarks by fervently cataloguing the contests yet to come, concluding with a shout of “…and then we're going to Washington, D.C., to take back the White House! Yeah!” His voice cracked on the final “Yeah!,” turning the word into a bizarre yelp that was broadcast and, before long, replayed hundreds of times on news programs all over the country.
Have a good weekend!
Sports
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