Issue 39
January 30, 2024
FLASH Musk says Neuralink implanted in living human brain
1 Bipartisan immigration-for-security aid deal dead
2 House Republicans prepare to impeach Homeland Security Secretary
3 OPINION Supreme Court razor wire decision analysis
4 Early warning measures see nationwide manufacturing slowdown
5 Oil price moves muted in wake of fatal drone strike
1/30/1968 Tet Offensive begins in Vietnam
see ad astra on x @greg_loving
1 Bipartisan immigration-for-security aid deal dead
Even with Democratic Senate support and a Presidential signature, immigration reform has died in the Republican-led House. A bipartisan group of Senators has been negotiating an immigration-for-security aid deal for weeks. This weekend, Republicans said the rumored draft deal was “dead on arrival”. Democrats control the Senate and the Presidency. Republicans say the bill does not go far enough, contending that only their bill, HR2, passed last year along party lines, is sufficient. Democrats in the Senate killed HR2. Democrats claim that Trump’s influence is swaying Republicans, and that Trump wants to keep the issue alive for the Presidential election. Polling suggests that just 27% of Americans approve of Mr Biden’s handling of immigration. More than twice as many say they trust Donald Trump on the matter. On Friday, Biden announced that he would "shut down the border" once Congress passes a bipartisan immigration deal that would purportedly give the president authority to do so. In a press release, Biden acknowledged that "the border's been broken." Trump retorted "The fact is that if Joe Biden truly wanted to secure the border, he doesn't really need a bill," Trump said. "I didn't need a bill. I did it without a bill. I did it with the current laws. I used Border Patrol." The deal would have exchanged immigration reform for billions in security aid for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan. Without additional aid, most experts predict significant difficulties for Ukrainian forces. The lead Republican negotiator, Oklahoma Senator James Lankford, was censured by the Oklahoma GOP this weekend.
Ad Astra
Sources
NYT
Axios
Fox News
Economist
https://www.economist.com/united-states/2024/01/25/how-americas-failed-immigration-policies-might-cost-joe-biden-the-election
https://www.economist.com/in-brief/2024/01/29/republicans-prepare-mayorkas-impeachment-calls-to-strike-iran
2 House Republicans prepare to impeach Homeland Security Secretary
Republicans in the House unveiled articles of impeachment against Alejandro Mayorkas, the secretary of homeland security, accusing him of failing to uphold immigration laws. An impeachment vote by the whole chamber will probably happen in the week of February 5th.
Economist
https://www.economist.com/in-brief/2024/01/29/republicans-prepare-mayorkas-impeachment-calls-to-strike-iran
3 OPINION Supreme Court razor wire decision analysis
Ed. Note: yesterday we ran a story on a dispute between TX and the federal government over the border
It’s really important to stress that two different things are true: First, Abbott is not “essentially ignoring” the Supreme Court. Second, he is interfering with federal authority to a degree we haven’t seen from state officials since the desegregation cases of the 1950s and 1960s.
With regard to the court, all that the justices did on Monday was to vacate a lower-court injunction, which had itself prohibited federal officials from cutting or otherwise removing razor wire that Texas officials have placed along or near the US-Mexico border.
Nothing in Monday’s unexplained order stops Abbott from doing anything; it just means the federal government can’t be sanctioned by courts if it takes steps to remove those obstacles.
Instead, the real issue here is that Abbott is deliberately impeding the ability of federal officials to act in and around Eagle Pass – in a way that isn’t in outright defiance of the Supreme Court (yet), but that is inconsistent with the supremacy of federal law.
CNN
https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/27/politics/texas-border-supreme-court-what-matters/index.html
4 Early warning measures see nationwide manufacturing slowdown
A gauge of Texas factory activity slumped at the start of the year to its second-lowest level since shortly after the onset of the pandemic, adding to a drumbeat of regional surveys showing the contraction in manufacturing is gaining pace.
Results of the survey, released Monday, showed that more than a third of respondents indicated that business activity was getting worse. Manufacturers in New York state and in districts of the Philadelphia, Richmond and Kansas City Fed banks were also downbeat.
Bloomberg
Ed. Note: these types of surveys can be noisy and the US economy is driven by consumer activity, so this could be nothing. Or it could be important.
5 Oil price moves muted in wake of fatal drone strike
Vanda Insights
“The question is, why have we not seen Brent shoot up toward $90 or higher?” said Vandana Hari, the Singapore-based founder of the company. “There would need to be a direct hit on a Middle Eastern oil cargo or oil production infrastructure for prices to skyrocket.” Global benchmark Brent crude jumped as much as 1.5% in early Asian trading before paring most of those gains to trade near $84 a barrel.
Again Capital
“None of the actors want a full-blown war,” said John Kilduff, founding partner of the company. “The oil is still flowing, no oil fields have come in the crosshairs and we’re still seeing vessels going through into the Suez Canal. If there are any signs of tensions easing,” prices will pull back, he added.
Bloomberg
Brent oil $81.84 @ 5:49a est 1/30/24
1/30/1968 Tet Offensive begins in Vietnam, kicking off turbulent year
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