July 17 2024
Trump on Taiwan; biofuels; Menendez convicted; Biden moves Left; China slows
1 Trump skeptical of US defending Taiwan
2 US biofuels policy helps foreign farmers, hurts domestic farmers
3 Sen. Bob Menendez (NJ-D) convicted of bribery
4 In a bid to save his candidacy, Biden moves Left
5 China’s economy slows
7/17/1955 Disneyland opens
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Ed note: Trump gave a wide-ranging interview to Bloomberg, released this morning. The most newsworthy section where his comments on Taiwan:
1 Trump skeptical of US defending Taiwan
Trump’s transactional view of foreign policy and his desire to “win” every deal could have ramifications around the globe—and even rupture US alliances. Asked about America’s commitment to defending Taiwan from China, which views the Asian democracy as a breakaway province, Trump makes it clear that, despite recent bipartisan support for Taiwan, he’s at best lukewarm about standing up to Chinese aggression. Part of his skepticism is grounded in economic resentment. “Taiwan took our chip business from us,” he says. “I mean, how stupid are we? They took all of our chip business. They’re immensely wealthy.” What he wants is for Taiwan to pay the US for protection. “I don’t think we’re any different from an insurance policy. Why? Why are we doing this?” he asks. Another factor driving his skepticism is what he regards as the practical difficulty of defending a small island on the other side of the globe. “Taiwan is 9,500 miles away,” he says. “It’s 68 miles away from China.” Abandoning the commitment to Taiwan would represent a dramatic shift in US foreign policy—as significant as halting support for Ukraine. But Trump sounds ready to radically alter the terms of these relationships.
Ed note: Here were some other takeaways from the interview:
The Fed: Trump said he’d allow Chair Jerome Powell to serve out his full term but warned against cutting rates before November.
Tax cuts: He’d like to bring the corporate tax rate down to as low as 15%, from 21% currently.
Jamie Dimon: Trump’s changed his view of the JPMorgan CEO—who he once called a “highly overrated Globalist”—and said he’d consider him for Treasury secretary.
Article Source: Bloomberg
2 US biofuels policy helps foreign farmers, hurts domestic farmers
President Joe Biden’s reelection campaign has had a tough week. Lingering in the background is a boom he touted for American farmers that hasn’t panned out, creating one more thorn in his side as he vies to win favor in crucial swing states. At the heart of the matter is production of biofuels, which can be made from crops like soybeans and corn, or from waste products like used cooking oil. The fuels benefit from government initiatives, regardless of whether the ingredients are produced in the US or overseas, pushing fuelmakers to import raw materials whenever it’s more profitable. A flurry of incentives under Biden’s landmark climate bill, along with a growing number of state programs, are spurring greater demand for fuel ingredients of all types, but especially those made from waste fats and oils, which typically boast a small carbon footprint and in turn are highly valued under policies aimed at fighting climate change. US biofuel producers are increasingly making renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel from raw materials that come from Asia and South America. Imports of used cooking oil from China and waste beef fat from Brazil have climbed to a record, eroding demand for US crops. “The US is designing rules to help our competitors and our competing countries’ farmers,” said Gordon Denny, an agricultural consultant and former procurement director at Bunge Global SA. While agriculture isn’t currently capturing the political headlines, the perception that American growers are being left behind has prompted both Republican and Democratic US senators in recent months to push the Biden administration to address the issue. And all this comes at a time when US farm income is poised for the biggest decline since 2006, which means farmer frustration could help boost turnout of rural pro-Republican voters in key battlegrounds states like Michigan and Wisconsin.
Article Source: Bloomberg
3 Sen. Bob Menendez (NJ-D) convicted of bribery
Sen. Bob Menendez was convicted Tuesday of taking bribes from three businessmen who showered him and his wife with cash, gold bars and a Mercedes-Benz, an extravagant bounty for his help securing deals with foreign officials and trying to derail several criminal investigations in New Jersey. The jury in Manhattan federal court found the once powerful New Jersey lawmaker guilty on all 16 felony counts. They include bribery, extortion, wire fraud, conspiracy, obstruction of justice and acting as a foreign agent for Egypt from 2018 to 2022, when Menendez was at the height of his influence in Washington, serving as chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee or as the panel’s top Democrat while his party was in the minority.
WaPo
Senate Majority Leader Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.) and New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy (D) issued swift calls Tuesday for Sen. Bob Menendez (D-N.J.) to resign after he was convicted of taking bribes from three business executives who showered him and his wife with cash, gold bars and a Mercedes-Benz.
Further, Murphy said, if Menendez refuses to step down, he will call on the Senate to vote to expel him. Because Democrats hold a thin majority in the Senate, Murphy said he would move quickly to appoint an interim senator who would serve the remainder of Menendez’s term into January. “In the event of a vacancy, I will exercise my duty to make a temporary appointment to ensure the people of New Jersey have the representation they deserve,” Murphy said.
NYT
Article Source: WaPo
4 In a bid to save his candidacy, Biden moves Left
Since his disastrous debate last month, President Biden has embraced a laundry list of left-wing policy proposals, strong-armed the party's nomination process and still tried to limit spontaneous, unscripted moments. It's saved his candidacy — for now. Biden's moves have kept top Democrats from stampeding away from him — even as many remain privately uneasy with the 81-year-old president staying at the top of the ticket and serving another term. Amid worries he could lose and drag down Democratic House and Senate candidates with him, just 20 Democrats in Congress have called on him to step aside. That's partly because of promises that Biden — long a centrist Democrat — has made to his party's progressive wing. Biden said this past week that if he's re-elected, he'd call for legislation to cap landlords' ability to hike rent prices, push for a large-scale elimination of medical debt, and pursue other plans that have been applauded by progressives such as Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.).
Sanders penned an effusive op-ed in the New York Times for Biden's re-election over the weekend, and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) has been publicly supportive. The influential Congressional Black Caucus also has largely been enthusiastic in its support. That's given Biden a lifeline with lawmakers representing two of the most important parts of the Democratic Party's base.
Axios
President Biden is seriously considering legislative proposals that would dramatically alter the Supreme Court, including imposing term limits and an enforceable code of ethics on the justices, according to a person familiar with the ongoing discussions. Mr. Biden’s proposals to overhaul the court, which could be unveiled in the coming weeks, would need congressional approval, something that is likely to be a long shot given Republican control of the House and the slim Democratic majority in the Senate. The president is also considering calling for a constitutional amendment that could limit the broad presidential immunity that the court’s conservative majority backed at the end of its term this year, the person said, speaking on the condition of anonymity because the president’s deliberations have not been made public.
NYT
Article Source: Axios, NYT
5 China’s economy slows
Chinese leader Xi Jinping wants to fashion China into a manufacturing colossus that leads the world in technological innovation. His pursuit of that vision is increasingly weighing on China’s economy. Growth is slowing and becoming more unbalanced, propped up by exports and a gusher of investment into factories, while much of the rest of the economy languishes. Consumers are reining in spending, the housing market is depressed, local governments are swimming in debt and foreign investors are pulling their cash—all at a time when China’s population is rapidly aging.
WSJ
China’s growth unexpectedly slowed to the worst pace in five quarters as faltering consumer spending undermined an export boom, putting pressure on policymakers to step up support at a twice-a-decade economic meeting this week. Gross domestic product expanded 4.7% in the second quarter from the same period a year earlier, weaker than all except one of 28 estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists. Retail sales rose at the slowest monthly pace since December 2022, showing a flurry of government efforts to juice confidence have done little to reinvigorate the Chinese consumer. President Xi Jinping’s bet on manufacturing and high-tech sectors to propel China’s growth in the post-pandemic era got a boost, as industrial production held up.
Bloomberg
Article Source: WSJ, Bloomberg
7/17/1955 Disneyland opens
Sources
1. https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2024-trump-interview/?cmpid=BBD071724_OUS&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_term=240717&utm_campaign=openamericas
2. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-12/biofuel-woes-are-another-thorn-for-biden-as-farmers-grow-tense
3. https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/07/16/bob-menendez-convicted-trial-bribery/; https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/07/16/menendez-guilty-verdict-reactions-corruption-trial/
4. https://www.axios.com/newsletters/axios-am-92a66c20-43b0-11ef-907d-e96b6db1baa8?chunk=0&utm_campaign=axios_app#story0; https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/16/us/politics/biden-supreme-court-overhaul.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare&sgrp=c-cb
5. https://www.wsj.com/world/china/chinas-economy-is-in-trouble-xi-jinping-has-other-priorities-c1933b34?st=fhr4iwsgvl9a8g9&reflink=article_copyURL_share; https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-15/china-growth-weakens-more-than-expected-as-outlook-darkens
Thanks for reading!
