June 18 2024
De-dollarization?; commercial real estate; Trump-Biden; Chinese nuclear power; Putin in North Korea
1 King dollar’s share of global capital flows up since pandemic
2 Commercial real estate risk still lurks
3 ELECTION 2024 Black support for Biden soft, still vastly outpaces Trump
4 US 15 years behind China on nuclear power: report
5 BATTLE FOR EURASIA Putin travels to North Korea for ammo
Sports - Celtics beat Mavericks to win NBA Finals
6/18/1815 Napoleon defeated at Waterloo
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1 King dollar’s share of global capital flows up since pandemic
In the face of calls around the world to diversify out of the dollar in recent years, the US has nabbed almost one-third of all the investment that flowed across borders since Covid struck. An International Monetary Fund analysis sent by request to Bloomberg News shows that the share of global flows has climbed — not fallen — since a shortage of dollars in 2020 spooked global investors and the 2022 freezing of Russian assets stoked questions about respect for free movement of capital. The pre-pandemic US average share was just 18%, according to the IMF. For all the angst over the dollar’s dominance, a run-up in US interest rates to the highest levels in decades proved a major draw for overseas investors. The US has also pulled in a fresh wave of foreign direct investment (FDI) thanks to billions of dollars worth of incentives under President Joe Biden’s initiatives to spur renewable energy and semiconductor production.
Article Source: Bloomberg
2 Commercial real estate risk still lurks
Pacific Investment Management Co. expects more regional bank failures in the US because of a “very high” concentration of troubled commercial real estate loans on their books. “The real wave of distress is just starting” for lenders to everything from malls to offices
Uncertainty over when the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates has exacerbated challenges faced by the CRE sector, where high borrowing costs have hammered valuations and triggered defaults, leaving lenders stuck with assets that are tough to sell. Contrary to some market expectations, larger banks have been disposing of some of their higher quality assets first to avoid deeper losses, according to Murray.
The turmoil has been particularly felt among regional banks, which boosted their CRE exposure that in many cases is now worth only a fraction of their value at their peak. Smaller banks have also continued to worry investors ever since the collapse of a few last year. Earlier this year, New York Community Bancorp shocked investors by slashing its dividend and stockpiling more cash for potentially bad loans, sending shares into a tailspin that ended in a capital injection. US Bancorp, the largest regional bank by assets, increased its provisions for credit losses in the first quarter. Shares of Axos Financial Inc. slumped last week after a short seller took aim at what it called the bank’s “glaring” property loan problems.
Article Source: Bloomberg
3 ELECTION 2024 Black support for Biden soft, still vastly outpaces Trump
Black voters helped put Joe Biden in the White House four years ago. They may not vote to give him a second term, even though they dislike former president Donald Trump far more, according to an exclusive new USA TODAY/Suffolk University poll. The poll, of Black voters in the swing states of Pennsylvania and Michigan, found that Biden is still the first or second choice of the vast majority, while most would avoid Trump.
In 2020, Biden carried 92% of Black voters nationwide with Trump winning just 8%, according to Pew Research Center validated voter studies. Less than 150 days until Biden faces his predecessor again, however, various campaign yardsticks indicate African American support for Biden is far more anemic this time around.
For his part, Trump said his campaign is making inroads with the Black community. But polls, including the USA TODAY/Suffolk survey released Sunday, show those might not be as big as he thinks. The poll shows Trump remains deeply unpopular with African American voters, who indicate they still favor Biden and will opt for third party candidates like Cornel West or Robert F. Kennedy Jr. before casting their ballot for the former president. Again and again, in this poll and others, the majority of Black voters say they may not be in love with Biden but, as Kevin Hill, 46, of Oakland, California, put it, "What's the alternative? Trump?" David Paleologos who directs Suffolk's Political Research Center and led the new poll, said the good news for Biden is that he might be able to win back some of those voters who say they're not big fans or prefer third-party candidates. In Michigan, for instance, he's the first choice of 54% of voters in both states and the second choice of an additional 45%, the poll showed. Trump is polling somewhat higher than the 2020 exit polls, with about 15% in Michigan saying they'll support him and 11% in Pennsylvania, compared to single-digits in the last election. The silver lining for Trump, Paleologos said, is that because Biden won 13 times Trump’s support from Black voters the last time, to maintain the same level of support, Biden would need to earn 13 new Black votes for every vote he loses to Trump.
Article Source: USA Today
4 US 15 years behind China on nuclear power: report
The U.S. is as many as 15 years behind China on developing high-tech nuclear power as Beijing's state-backed technology approach and extensive financing give it the edge, a report said on Monday. China has 27 nuclear reactors under construction with average construction timelines of about seven years, far faster than other countries, said the study by Information Technology & Innovation Foundation, a Washington-based nonpartisan research institute. But after two large plants in Georgia came online in 2023 and 2024 billions of dollars over budget and delayed by years, no U.S. nuclear reactors are being built. A high-tech plant that had been planned to be built at a U.S. lab was canceled last year. China's state-owned banks can offer loans as low as 1.4%, far lower than available in Western economies. Its nuclear power industry has benefited from sustained state support and localization strategies that has allowed China to dominate sectors like renewable power and EVs.
Article Source: Reuters
5 BATTLE FOR EURASIA Putin travels to North Korea for ammo
President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia will visit North Korea this week for a meeting with its leader, Kim Jong-un, their second in nine months, as the two countries deepen military ties to support Mr. Putin’s war in Ukraine with North Korean weapons. Mr. Putin last visited North Korea in 2000, when he became the first Russian or Soviet leader to visit the nation. This week’s trip, beginning on Tuesday, highlights North Korea’s growing strategic importance for Mr. Putin, especially its ability to supply badly needed conventional weapons for the war in Ukraine.
Article Source: NYT
Sports - Boston Celtics beat the Dallas Mavericks to win NBA Finals
6/18/1815 Napoleon defeated at Waterloo
Sources
1. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-16/how-the-us-mopped-up-a-third-of-global-capital-flows-since-covid
2. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-11/pimco-warns-of-more-regional-bank-failures-on-commercial-property-pain
3. https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/06/16/black-voters-biden-trump-poll/73671017007/
4. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-many-15-years-behind-china-nuclear-power-report-says-2024-06-17/
5. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/17/world/asia/russia-north-korea-putin-kim.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare&sgrp=c-cb
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