June 19 2024
Corporate tax rate; national debt; NC genetic testing; AI; China
FLASH Nvidia passes Apple, Microsoft to become world’s most valuable company
1 ELECTION 2024 Corporate tax rate up for grabs in November
2 US federal debt to exceed $50t by 2034: CBO
3 North Carolina pioneers newborn genetic testing
4 Kurzweil: AI will transform the physical world
5 China could match US in military conflict thanks to shipbuilding strength
6/19/1865 Abolition of slavery announced in Texas on “Juneteenth”
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FLASH Nvidia passes Apple, Microsoft to become world’s most valuable company
1 ELECTION 2024 Corporate tax rate up for grabs in November
The 21% U.S. corporate tax rate is the biggest single variable in the sprawling 2025 tax debate, and the two parties are trying to turn that dial in opposite directions with major consequences for companies’ profits and federal revenue. The rate could climb as high as 28% if Democrats sweep November’s elections and move as low as 15% if Republicans gain full power. President Biden’s plan for a 28% rate would reverse half of Republicans’ 2017 rate cut, pushing the U.S. corporate rate back near the highest among major economies. A 15% rate—some Republicans are heading that way, but the party hasn’t settled on a plan—would match the lowest level since 1935, boosting profits and rewarding shareholders. Presumptive Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump told corporate executives last week that he wanted a 20% rate. Each percentage point is worth more than $130 billion over a decade in tax revenue, creating a $1 trillion-plus gap between the poles of the parties’ positions and giving the largest U.S. companies an outsize interest in the election’s outcome.
Article Source: WSJ
2 US federal debt to exceed $50t by 2034: CBO
As lawmakers grapple with increasing defense demands and spending on social safety net programs, the Congressional Budget Office projected Tuesday that the federal debt will equal 122 percent of the United States’ annual economic output by 2034, far surpassing the high set in the aftermath of World War II. The deficit will swell to $1.9 trillion this fiscal year and keep growing until the overall national debt hits $50.7 trillion a decade from now, Congress’s nonpartisan bookkeeper said in its latest report. The group revised its forecast from four months ago, when it projected that the debt would reach $48.3 trillion in 2034, and 116 percent of economic output. The new figures add to the urgency facing policymakers in 2025 — and on the campaign trail — to tackle the nation’s financial health. Next year, vast portions of the tax code are set to expire, potentially forcing a steep tax hike on individuals and families. Congress suspended the debt limit in 2023, but that, too, will expire next year, setting up a showdown between the two parties over federal spending.
Article Source: WaPo
3 North Carolina pioneers newborn genetic testing
Free of charge, parents in North Carolina can have experts conduct a more extensive scan and review their baby’s entire genetic blueprint for 200 different conditions. Researchers in North Carolina and New York are studying whether this far more comprehensive approach can save lives and improve children’s health. Two decades after scientists sequenced the first human genome, the two studies reflect the rapid emergence of a new kind of health care called genomic medicine, spawned by that landmark achievement. Early results show that genome sequencing is identifying conditions not disclosed through the traditional newborn screening required by all 50 states. Since the study in North Carolina began in September 2023, researchers have examined the genomes of more than 1,800 babies; 40 were deemed likely to have medical conditions that were not previously diagnosed. One newborn was flagged as likely to have two previously undiagnosed conditions.
Article Source: WaPo
4 Kurzweil: AI will transform the physical world
By the time children born today are in kindergarten, artificial intelligence (ai) will probably have surpassed humans at all cognitive tasks, from science to creativity. When I first predicted in 1999 that we would have such artificial general intelligence (agi) by 2029, most experts thought I’d switched to writing fiction. But since the spectacular breakthroughs of the past few years, many experts think we will have agi even sooner—so I’ve technically gone from being an optimist to a pessimist, without changing my prediction at all. After working in the field for 61 years—longer than anyone else alive—I am gratified to see ai at the heart of global conversation. Yet most commentary misses how large language models like Chatgpt and Gemini fit into an even larger story. ai is about to make the leap from revolutionising just the digital world to transforming the physical world as well. This will bring countless benefits, but three areas have especially profound implications: energy, manufacturing and medicine.
Ray Kurzweil is a computer scientist, inventor and the author of books including “The Age of Intelligent Machines” (1990), “The Age of Spiritual Machines” (1999) and “The Singularity is Near” (2005). His new book, “The Singularity is Nearer: When We Merge with AI”, will be published on June 25th.
Article Source: Economist
5 China could match US in military conflict thanks to shipbuilding strength
China’s rapid naval expansion and advanced shipbuilding capabilities are seen as giving it a strategic edge in potential conflicts, including against the US’s “hellscape strategy.” Raymond Kuo, a RAND Taiwan program director, noted that “China’s ability to relatively rapidly produce naval ships means that it can reconstitute any combat losses more quickly than the United States can.” That comparative advantage exists even though U.S. ships “tend to be more complex and have greater displacement.” Analysts highlight China’s ability to quickly replace combat losses and the proximity of potential conflict zones like Taiwan and the South China Sea to its shores. Recent satellite imagery shows the launch of China’s 10th Type 055 destroyer, its most advanced warship, with more in construction. Reports indicate China’s shipbuilding industry can outpace the US in repairing and constructing naval vessels, which could be decisive in a prolonged conflict. The US is developing a drone strategy to counter China, but faces significant challenges, including a backlog in maintenance and limited shipbuilding capacity. Analysts emphasize the importance of the US addressing these issues to effectively counter China’s growing naval power.
A report this month by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) echoed these conclusions, assessing that China’s “massive shipbuilding industry would provide a strategic advantage in a war that stretches beyond a few weeks.” Admiral Samuel Paparo, commander of the Indo-Pacific Command, recently commented that the U.S. plans to distract and overwhelm PLA forces by using a large, lethal drone force in what he described as a “hellscape” strategy. Collin Koh, a fellow at a Singapore think tank, said that strategy has preconditions — “One shouldn’t forget that you still need to neutralize the Chinese ability to project force on Taiwan,” which would include destroying China’s shipyards, an operation requiring long-range precision-guided munitions, among other weapons.
Article Source: Cipher Brief
6/19/1865 Abolition of slavery announced in Texas on “Juneteenth”
Sources
1. https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/corporate-tax-rate-election-53de5180
2. https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2024/06/18/national-debt-budget-projections-cbo/
3. https://www.washingtonpost.com/science/2024/06/17/sequence-baby-genome-diseases/
4. https://www.economist.com/by-invitation/2024/06/17/ray-kurzweil-on-how-ai-will-transform-the-physical-world
Cipher Brief
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