May 16 2024
May 16 2024
Roots of Mideastern disorder
1 Stocks advance to all-time highs
2 ELECTION 2024 Trump and Biden to debate in June, September
3 Russia launched prelude to antisatellite nuke in 2022: US intel
4 OPINION Russian advance in Ukraine designed to disintegrate Ukraine forces
5 Israel: Gaza risks becoming forever war; UN adjusts Palestinian casualties
5/16/1879 Russia and England set up Afghan state
5/16/1916 Britain and France conclude Sykes-Picot agreement
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1 Stocks advance to all-time highs
All three major U.S. stock indexes closed at records after the latest inflation report showed price pressures moderating, bucking a trend of hotter-than-expected readings. The S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Composite logged all-time highs on the same day for the first time since March 21. The S&P 500 gained 1.2% on Wednesday, while the Dow industrials climbed 0.9%, adding roughly 350 points. The index is fewer than 100 points away from hitting 40,000. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite rose 1.4%
WSJ
2 ELECTION 2024 Trump and Biden to debate in June, September
President Biden and former president Donald Trump agreed Wednesday to a June 27 debate on CNN and a Sept. 10 debate broadcast by ABC News, bypassing the decades-old tradition of three fall meetings organized by the bipartisan Commission on Presidential Debates. The decisions by the major-party candidates to take control of the once independent debate planning process upended the timeline that has defined presidential contests for decades, adding unpredictability to an already close race. The two debates will happen much earlier than normal, which could decrease their impact on the election or awaken voters who have not yet tuned in. Both candidates would be taking a chance by debating. If he stumbles or appears forgetful, Biden, 81, risks confirming some Americans’ suspicions that he is too old for the job. And Trump, just four years younger, has also faced doubts about his age. A face-to-face meeting could also remind Americans of Trump’s volatility and would give Biden the chance to describe the election as a choice between the two men, rather than a referendum on his record.
WaPo
3 Russia launched prelude to antisatellite nuke in 2022: US intel
Russia launched a satellite into space in February 2022 that is designed to test components for a potential antisatellite weapon that would carry a nuclear device, U.S. officials said. The satellite that was launched doesn’t carry a nuclear weapon. But U.S. officials say it is linked to a continuing Russian nuclear antisatellite program that has been a growing worry for the Biden administration, Congress and experts outside government in recent months. The weapon, if deployed, would give Moscow the ability to destroy hundreds of satellites in low-Earth orbit with a nuclear blast. The satellite in question, known as Cosmos-2553, was launched on Feb. 5, 2022, and is still traveling around the Earth in an unusual orbit. It has been secretly operating as a research and development platform for nonnuclear components of the new weapon system, which Russia has yet to deploy, other officials said. Russia says that the spacecraft is intended for scientific research, a claim U.S. officials say isn’t plausible. Though the U.S. has been aware that Russia was interested in a nuclear antisatellite capability for years, it has only recently been able to better determine the program’s progress, U.S. officials have said.
WSJ
4 OPINION Russian advance in Ukraine designed to disintegrate Ukraine forces
There is a large Russian operation going on in Ukraine focused on the Kharkov* area. At the same time, the Russians are also attacking elsewhere, primarily in Donbas but also in Zaphorize. The threat in the north has compelled Ukraine to pull troops deployed elsewhere, including Chasiv Yar, to try and hold the line in the Kharkov area. If it was Russia's intention to force Ukraine's army to move its troops northwards, then it looks like a success so far. These troop movements will offer the Russian army the chance to do more damage to Ukraine's army. The big question is what is the Russian objective. Military experts do not think Russia has enough new troops deployed (an additional 50,000) to actually take Kharkov. Some think maybe Russia will bring in additional forces to conquer Kharkov, but so far at least that has not happened. There seems to be a strong conviction in NATO circles that Kharkov is the target. I am far less certain, and in fact it seems to me that is not the objective. While it is true that a cauldron is being built by the Russians around the city, my own belief is they want to fight the Ukrainians more out in the open than inside a big city. Kharkiv is Ukraine's second largest city. To my mind Russia's objective is to force Ukraine's army to chase after invading Russian units. The idea is to cause heavy casualties on the Ukrainian side and, if all goes according to plan, either to split Ukraine's army into two, or disintegrate it altogether. In such a manner the idea is not just to take territory, but to destroy Ukraine's ability to resist.
Quite possibly the Ukrainian army cannot stay in the fight even in the medium term. There are not enough soldiers, and those still fighting are tired and some clearly dispirited. I believe Russia's immediate aim is to discombobulate Ukraine's army and is already well advanced.
*Kharkov is the Russian spelling. Kharkiv is the Ukrainian spelling.
Weapons and Strategy
5 Israel: Gaza risks becoming forever war; UN adjusts Palestinian casualties
35k Palestinians dead
Seven months into the war, Hamas is far from defeated, stoking fears in Israel that it is walking into a forever war. TThe U.S.-designated terrorist group is using its network of tunnels, small cells of fighters and broad social influence to not only survive but to harry Israeli forces. Hamas is attacking more aggressively, firing more antitank weapons at soldiers sheltering in houses and at Israeli military vehicles daily, said an Israeli reservist from the 98th commando division fighting in Jabalia. Hamas’s resilience poses a strategic problem for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who repeated Wednesday that the destruction of the Palestinian Islamist group has to come before any political solution to the war. Concerns have grown within Israel, including in the security establishment, that Israel has no credible plan for replacing Hamas, and whatever achievements the military has won will be diminished. As Israel’s military moved tanks and troops into Rafah, which it had billed as Hamas’s last redoubt, Hamas launched hit-and-run attacks on Israeli forces in northern Gaza, witnesses said. Areas that had been relatively quiet turned into battlegrounds as Israel said Tuesday that it called in tanks for support in fights with dozens of militants and struck more than 100 targets from the air, including one it called a Hamas war room in central Gaza.
WSJ
The United Nations has begun citing a much lower death toll for women and children in Gaza, acknowledging that it has incomplete information about many of the people killed during Israel’s military offensive in the territory.
the U.N. said that 4,959 women, 7,797 children and 10,006 men had been killed. While the total number of deaths remained roughly the same (an overall death toll of 34,735.), a U.N. official said that it was awaiting more identifying information from officials in Gaza for about 10,000 of the dead, so they were not included in the new breakdown of women, men and children.
NYT
5/16/1879 The Treaty of Gandamak between Russia and England sets up the Afghan state
5/16/1916 Britain and France conclude Sykes-Picot agreement
On May 16, 1916, representatives of Great Britain and France secretly reach an accord, known as the Sykes-Picot Agreement, by which most of the Arab lands under the rule of the Ottoman Empire are to be divided into British and French spheres of influence with the conclusion of World War I.
In the Sykes-Picot agreement, France and Britain divided up the Arab territories of the former Ottoman Empire into spheres of influence. In its designated sphere, it was agreed, each country shall be allowed to establish such direct or indirect administration or control as they desire and as they may think fit to arrange with the Arab State or Confederation of Arab States. Under Sykes-Picot, the Syrian coast and much of modern-day Lebanon went to France; Britain would take direct control over central and southern Mesopotamia, around the Baghdad and Basra provinces. Palestine would have an international administration, as other Christian powers, namely Russia, held an interest in this region. The rest of the territory in question—a huge area including modern-day Syria, Mosul in northern Iraq, and Jordan—would have local Arab chiefs under French supervision in the north and British in the south. Also, Britain and France would retain free passage and trade in the other’s zone of influence.
Sources
[2]https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/05/15/biden-trump-presidential-debates/
[4]https://substack.com/inbox/post/144594089
[5]https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/hamas-strategy-israel-war-0292d40c?mod=hp_lead_pos3; https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/05/14/world/israel-gaza-war-hamas-rafah?campaign_id=51&emc=edit_mbe_20240515&instance_id=123391&nl=morning-briefing%3A-europe-edition®i_id=61468173&segment_id=166679&te=1&user_id=02b32d846497687a8f0c061d7ffd16b1
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