May 8 2024
VE Day
FLASH TikTok sues US government over potential app ban
1 Pandemic era excess savings depleted, signaling potential consumer spending slowdown
2 Social Security and Medicare to run out in the 2030s, Congress likely to print money to keep benefits whole
3 US soldier detained in Russia
4 ELECTION 2024 Democrats at breaking point with Israel, Biden halts weapons sales
5 Global trade growth set to more than double
5/8/1945 V-E Day is celebrated in America and Britain
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1 Pandemic era excess savings depleted, signaling potential consumer spending slowdown
US households have exhausted the pile of cash squirreled away during the pandemic, according to research from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. “The latest estimates of overall pandemic excess savings remaining in the US economy have turned negative, suggesting that American households fully spent their pandemic-era savings as of March 2024,” San Francisco Fed economists Hamza Abdelrahman and Luiz Oliveira said in a blog post published Friday. The duo have been updating their estimates regularly over time, and last year flagged that the US savings surplus was lasting longer than previously expected, helping to hold up spending.
Fortune
2 Social Security and Medicare to run out in the 2030s, Congress likely to print money to keep benefits whole
The Social Security and Medicare Trustees just released their annual reports on the financial status of the Social Security and Medicare programs. The Trustees project that both the Social Security and Medicare trust funds are within 12 years of insolvency and in need of trust fund solutions. Specifically, they project the Social Security Old Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) trust fund will run out of reserves in 2033, the Medicare Hospital Insurance (HI) trust fund will become insolvent by 2036, and the Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI) trust fund will remain solvent over the 75-year projection window. Assuming revenue is reallocated in the years between OASI and SSDI insolvency, the theoretically combined Social Security trust funds will be insolvent by 2035. In other words, Social Security's retirement trust fund will reach insolvency when today’s 58-year-olds reach the normal retirement age and today’s youngest retirees turn 71. At that point, all beneficiaries will face a 21 percent across-the-board benefit cut.
Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget
The U.S. government will still likely be able to afford to pay full benefits to retired and disabled Americans in 2035. Whether it does so will in some ways be an accounting decision for lawmakers who control how money is classified within the government—and whether they want to tackle tough questions about federal spending or sidestep the politically radioactive debate.
Congress will have a straightforward option to keep delivering full benefits, they say, though the absence of cost savings or new revenue would mean leaving a significant driver of the overall federal deficit unaddressed.
WSJ
3 US soldier detained in Russia
A man who has been identified by American officials as an Army sergeant was detained in Russia last week after a local woman reported him on allegations of theft, the Russian authorities said on Tuesday. He will remain in jail until at least July, they said. The detention of the soldier, Staff Sgt. Gordon Black, 34, came to light on Monday, when the U.S. State and Defense Departments said that he was being held. He was detained in the far eastern Russian city of Vladivostok while he was in the process of returning home to Texas, after being stationed in South Korea.
NYT
4 ELECTION 2024 Democrats at breaking point with Israel, Biden halts weapons sales
Democrats in Congress are furious as Israel moves into the southern Gazan city of Rafah after they and President Biden spent months trying to prevent such an operation. A full-scale invasion could be a sea-change moment for Democrats on Israel and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, with whom relations have become increasingly strained. A House Democrat who has pushed for Biden to condition military aid to Israel said the Rafah assault "has the potential of making our case for us."
Axios
President Biden paused an arms shipment to Israel last week to prevent the U.S.-made weapons from being used in a long-threatened assault on the city of Rafah, administration officials said on Tuesday night, a sign of the growing rift between the United States and Israel over the conduct of the war.
NYT
5 Global trade growth set to more than double
Global trade growth is set to more than double this year as inflation eases and a booming US economy helps to drive activity, according to international bodies. The OECD, IMF and World Trade Organization are forecasting a sharp rebound in the global flow of products this year after a slowdown in 2023 driven by higher prices, surging interest rates and sluggish demand. According to the OECD, global trade in goods and services is expected to rise 2.3 per cent this year and 3.3 per cent in 2025. This compares with growth of just 1 per cent last year.
FT
5/8/1945 V-E Day is celebrated in America and Britain
On May 8, 1945, both Great Britain and the United States celebrate Victory in Europe Day. Cities in both nations, as well as formerly occupied cities in Western Europe, put out flags and banners, rejoicing in the defeat of the Nazi war machine during World War II.
Sources
[1] https://fortune.com/2024/05/06/americans-pandemic-savings-spent-2-1-trillion-san-francisco-fed/
[2]https://www.crfb.org/blogs/social-security-and-medicare-trustees-release-2024-reports
[3]https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/07/world/europe/us-soldier-detained-russia.html
[4]https://www.axios.com/newsletters/axios-am-2d083192-6fda-4717-b079-25b4ed74fca3.html?chunk=1&utm_campaign=axios_app#story1 https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/07/us/politics/israel-biden-arms.html
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