Military legitimacy crisis
Who’s left to join the military?
This article is going to discuss several very controversial topics. Ad Astra isn’t taking a stand on any of these issues, only acknowledging they exist and that some people feel very strongly about them
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Key takeaways
The US military faces a significant recruitment shortfall, exacerbated by ideological divides. Controversies like the 2020 election, COVID-19 vaccine mandates, and political actions perceived as unwelcoming to certain ideologies have alienated both the political Right and Left.
Demographic challenges compound the ideological issues, with Millennials aging out of the typical recruitment pool and younger generations like Gen Z being smaller.
The recruitment crisis has evolved into a crisis of legitimacy. With the armed forces experiencing significant decreases across all branches, there's a pressing need for the US to redefine its mission in the world to attract a broader spectrum of young people.
It’s been widely reported that the US military is suffering a massive recruitment shortfall. Part of this is demographics and mirrors the broader labor shortage in America. The Millennials, a massive echo of the Baby Boomers, are in their 30s now and younger generations, like Gen Z, are much smaller.
But part of it is ideological. After a very controversial 2020 election and the rollout of Covid vaccine mandates, much of the political Right became uninterested in military service and in some cases were unwillingly removed from the military. On February 26, 2024 a 25-year-old Air Force airman set himself on fire in Washington DC in front of the Israeli Embassy. Before he died, he shouted “free Palestine”. A large chunk of young liberals are against US military support for Israel in Gaza. So, this begs the question, if the US military can’t entice either the political Right or Left with a compelling reason to enlist, who’s remains?
The Right
Before Joe Biden became President in January 2021, there was an unspoken consensus that members placed on military advisory boards by an outgoing administration would be maintained by the present administration. In September 2021, Biden demanded the resignation of 18 of former President Donald Trump’s appointees from government advisory boards, despite their three-year terms[i].
President Biden took office at a highly politically charged moment, after the January 6, 2021 riot at the capital. On February 26, 2021, his Secretary of Defense ordered a one-day stand down of the military to discuss “extremism” in the ranks[ii]. Despite it not being unprecedented (similar efforts were undertaken during the Vietnam era and in the wake of the Oklahoma City bombing), some perceived it to mean that the armed forces were no longer welcoming to conservatives. That was the message disseminated on right-wing media.
The Covid-19 pandemic was also politically charged, with vaccine hesitancy more prevalent on the Right. Soldiers in the armed forces were required to be vaccinated and 8,400 were discharged[iii]for not complying. Many others took the vaccine who would not have otherwise. The military vaccine mandate was repealed a year later in 2022[iv].
The Left
Last week, an Air Force airman set himself on fire in front of Israel’s embassy in Washington DC to protest US support for the war in Gaza, which some call a genocide. Self-immolation’s are particularly shocking acts and have started large protest movements in the past, including the Arab Spring.
When asked if they sympathize with Israel or Palestine more in the present war, Democrats divide. 45% say they have greater sympathy for Israelis, and the same proportion (45%) say their sympathies are more with the Palestinians according to an NPR/Marist poll[v]. Younger generations have a stronger stance on the issue, with a plurality, 50%, of Gen Z and millennials sympathizing more with the Palestinian people than Israel, according to the same poll[vi]. The sentiment of younger Americans is more relevant for recruiting.
Crisis of legitimacy
A military readiness crisis has turned into a crisis of legitimacy, which is a much bigger problem.
In 2023, the military services collectively missed recruiting goals by about 41,000 recruits. "The all-volunteer force faces one of its greatest challenges since inception," Ashish S. Vazirani, Deputy Under Secretary of Defense for Personnel and Readiness said, a role created in 1973 after the draft ended[vii]. The US Army is expected to have 445,000 active-duty soldiers, representing an 8.4% or 40,000 decrease in soldiers over the past three years. The US Navy is expected to have a decrease of 10,000 sailors, marking a 3% reduction, and the US Air Force is expected to have a decrease of 13,475 airmen, representing a 4% reduction. Finally, the US Marine Corps is expected to have a decrease of 8,900 active-duty members, marking almost a 5% reduction over the past three years[viii].
The US military not only underpins US security, but also secures global organizations like the UN, NATO, and WTO. It’s not hyperbole to say that the world as we know it is held together by the US military. In particular, the US Navy has kept the sea lanes open to commercial trade since WW2. That role has come under its biggest threat to date in Yemen, where Houthi rebels are threatening maritime trade through the Suez Canal. It’s critical that the US Navy fulfills this role now, and in the future.
Get politics out
The US must find a new mission that entices wide swaths of young people to enlist in the armed forces, or else face irrelevance on the global stage. This is a big undertaking – defining national purpose – but a good first step is getting anything that resembles politics out of the military. That means not changing senior military leadership when a new Administration comes to power. I believe voters will punish politicians who politicize the military…if they know about it. The US needs more good journalists to hold our most important institutions accountable. Much has been said about the decay of our institutions, like the military. It’s is ultimately up to us, the public, to stop talking about the issue and demand that our leaders fix it.
[i] https://www.heritage.org/defense/commentary/bidens-unity-purge-military-advisory-boards
[ii] https://www.csis.org/analysis/assessing-pentagons-progress-countering-extremism-military
[iii] https://apnews.com/article/military-covid-vaccine-discharged-congress-480088ff9348e0f9d38dd27b05fc73e6
[iv] https://apnews.com/article/e4047962b92087be278c6886e2e2d0c5
[v] https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/the-looming-government-shutdown/
[vi] https://www.npr.org/2023/11/17/1213754905/young-voters-biden-israel-palestinians-hamas-war-gaza
[vii] https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3616786/dod-addresses-recruiting-shortfall-challenges/
[viii] https://americanmilitarynews.com/2023/12/us-military-41000-troops-short-of-recruitment-goal/