Sunday Digest #16
DoD China Report
[AI generated]
Every year, the Department of Defense (DoD) is mandated by Congress to release a report on the “Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China”. The 2023 report can only be described as surprising to the upside with how rapidly and how strong the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is becoming. This week’s digest contains some excerpts, though the full 192-page report contains much more alarming detail:
Why focus on China?
…the People’s Republic of China (PRC) is the only competitor to the United States with the intent and, increasingly, the capacity to reshape the international order. As a result, the 2022 National Defense Strategy identifies the PRC as the “pacing challenge” for the Department of Defense. As the PRC seeks to achieve “national rejuvenation” by its centenary in 2049, Chinese Communist Party (CCP) leaders view a modern, capable, and “world class” military as essential to overcoming what Beijing sees as an increasingly turbulent international environment.
In October 2022, Xi secured his third term as the general secretary of CCP at the Party Congress and his appointment of loyalists to top positions in the CMC probably will enable Xi to expand upon military modernization and operational goals during his next 5-year term.
FORCES, CAPABILITIES, AND POWER PROJECTION
People’s Liberation Army Army (PLAA). The PLAA continues to modernize equipment and focus on combined arms and joint training in effort to meet the goal of becoming a world class military. The PLAA demonstrated a new long-range fire capability in the PLA military response to the August 2022 U.S. Congressional Delegation (CODEL) visit to Taiwan. The PLAA continues to incorporate a twice a year conscript intake. The long-term effects of the policy are not clear.
People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN). The PRC has numerically the largest navy in the world with an overall battle force of over 370 ships and submarines, including more than 140 major surface combatants.
China, the top ship-producing nation in the world by tonnage, is increasing its shipbuilding capacity for all naval classes: submarines, surface combatants, and auxiliary and amphibious ships…In 2022, China launched its first domestically designed and manufactured aircraft carrier, featuring an electromagnetic catapult launch and arresting devices. The carrier will be able to deploy up to 70 aircraft, including J-15 fighters and Z-9C anti-submarine helicopters.
People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) and PLAN Aviation. The PLAAF and PLAN aviation together constitute the largest aviation force in the Indo-Pacific region. The PLAAF is rapidly catching up to western air forces. The PLAAF continues to modernize with the delivery of domestically built aircraft and a wide range of UASs. In October 2019, the PLAAF signaled the return of the airborne leg of its nuclear triad after the PLAAF publicly revealed the H-6N as its first nuclear-capable air-to-air refuelable bomber.
People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force (PLARF). The PLARF is advancing its long-term modernization plans to enhance its “strategic deterrence” capabilities. The PRC is developing new ICBMs that will significantly improve its nuclear-capable missile forces and will require increased nuclear warhead production
The PRC may be exploring development of conventionally-armed intercontinental range missile systems. If developed and fielded, such capabilities would allow the PRC to threaten conventional strikes against targets in the continental United States, Hawaii, and Alaska.
Hypersonic Weapons. The PRC’s deployment of the DF-17 HGV-armed MRBM will continue to transform the PLA’s missile force. The system is possibly intended to replace some older SRBM units and is intended to strike foreign military bases and fleets in the Western Pacific
Strategic Support Force (SSF). The SSF is a theater command-level organization established to centralize the PLA’s strategic space, cyberspace, electronic, information, communications, and psychological warfare missions and capabilities. The SSF’s Network Systems Department (NSD), sometimes referred to as the Cyberspace Force (CSF; 网络空间部队), is responsible for information warfare with an integrated mission set that includes cyberspace warfare, technical reconnaissance, electronic warfare, and psychological warfare.
ADVANCING TOWARDS AN INFORMATIZED MILITARY
The PLA considers information operations (IO) as a means of achieving information dominance early in a conflict and continues to expand the scope and frequency of IO in military exercises.
The PLA is pursuing next-generation combat capabilities based on its vision of future conflict, which it calls "intelligentized warfare," defined by the expanded use of AI and other advanced technologies at every level of warfare.
The PRC is advancing its cyberspace attack capabilities and has the ability to launch cyberspace attacks—such as disruption of a natural gas pipeline for days to weeks—in the United States.
SPACE AND COUNTERSPACE CAPABILITIES
The PLA views space superiority, the ability to control the space-enabled information sphere and to deny adversaries their own space-based information gathering and communication capabilities, as critical components to conduct modern “informatized warfare.”
The PLA continues to acquire and develop a range of counterspace capabilities and related technologies, including kinetic-kill missiles, ground-based lasers, and orbiting space robots
China was the third country to place a robotic rover on the Moon and was the first to land a rover on the lunar far side in 2019, which is communicating through the Queqiao relay satellite that China launched the year before to a stable orbit around an Earth-Moon Lagrange point.
Since at least 2006, the PRC has investigated aerospace engineering aspects associated with space-based kinetic weapons—generally a class of weapon used to attack ground, sea, or air targets from orbit. In July 2021, the PRC conducted the first fractional orbital launch of an ICBM with a hypersonic glide vehicle from China. This demonstrated the greatest distance flown (~40,000 kilometers) and longest flight time (~100+ minutes) of any Chinese land attack weapons system to date.
NUCLEAR CAPABILITIES
Over the next decade, the PRC will continue to rapidly modernize, diversify, and expand its nuclear forces. Compared to the PLA’s nuclear modernization efforts a decade ago, current efforts dwarf previous attempts in both scale and complexity.
In 2020, the DoD estimated China’s operational nuclear warhead stockpile was in the low-200s and expected to at least double by 2030. However, Beijing has accelerated its nuclear expansion, and DoD estimates China’s stockpile had more than 500 operational nuclear warheads as of May 2023.
DoD estimates that the PRC will probably have over 1,000 operational nuclear warheads by 2030
Figure 1: Range of various PLA missiles
PLA COERCIVE AND RISKY OPERATIONAL BEHAVIOR
Between the fall of 2021 and fall of 2023, the United States has documented over 180 instances of PLA coercive and risky air intercepts against U.S. aircraft in the region – more in the past two years than in the previous decade.
PLA OVERSEAS BASING AND ACCESS
The PRC is seeking to expand its overseas logistics and basing infrastructure to allow the PLA to project and sustain military power at greater distances. If realized, a global PLA military logistics network could disrupt U.S. military operations as the PRC’s global military objectives evolve.
the PLA [has a] support base in Djibouti
the PLA [has] access to parts of Cambodia’s Ream Naval Base. The PRC probably also has considered other countries as locations for PLA military logistics facilities, including Burma, Thailand, Indonesia, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, United Arab Emirates, Kenya, Equatorial Guinea, Seychelles, Tanzania, Angola, Nigeria, Namibia, Mozambique, Bangladesh, Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands, and Tajikistan.
RESOURCES AND TECHNOLOGY FOR FORCE MODERNIZATION
In 2022, the PRC announced its official annual military budget would increase by 7.1 percent, continuing more than 20 years of annual defense spending increases and sustaining its position as the second-largest military spender in the world.
ESPIONAGE ACTIVITIES SUPPORTING CHINA’S MILITARY MODERNIZATION
The PRC presents a sophisticated, persistent cyber-enabled espionage and attack threat to military and critical infrastructure systems through its efforts to develop, acquire, or gain access to information and advanced technologies.
There have also been multiple U.S. criminal indictments since 2015 involving espionage by PRC nationals, naturalized U.S. citizens or permanent resident aliens from the PRC, as well as U.S. citizens, for their efforts to illegally acquire information and technology to advance PLA modernization.
CRITICAL MINERAL EXPLOITATION
China controls the majority of the global critical minerals refining, in addition to the majority of rare earth element (REE) production and refining. Critical minerals such as lithium are key to the green energy transition, while REEs have significant industrial and defense applications. A 2022 Brookings report estimated that the PRC refines 68 percent of nickel, 40 percent of copper, 59 percent of lithium, and 73 percent of cobalt…the world is still significantly reliant on China for over 90 percent of REE processing and refining.
CHINA IN THE ARCTIC
The PRC’s expanding Arctic engagement has created new opportunities for engagement between the PRC and Russia. The PRC is interested in increasing the use of the Northern Sea Route (NSR) to cut shipping times between Europe and China by a third. The use of the NSR also allows China to diversify shipping routes away from the strategic Strait of Malacca. In September 2022, China and Russia also conducted a combined naval patrol in the Bering Sea.
Interesting chart
Looking at the changes to the leading causes of death by age group from 2001 to 2021 is shocking. Fentanyl, suicide, youth cancer, and cardiovascular disease are up while auto accidents are down.
Media recommendation
Netflix has a docuseries on the 1993 Waco, Texas faceoff between cult leader David Koresh and the federal government in a 51-day siege that begins with the biggest gunfight on American soil since the Civil War and ends with a fiery inferno captured live on national television.
#MotivationMonday 50: Nelson Mandela
There you have it, the sixteenth edition of Sunday Digest featuring a terrifying report on the Chinese military, the changing causes of death in America, and a Netflix docusieries on Waco. The portrait of a world spinning faster and faster. The good news is you have Netflix, Uber Eats, and running water. Until next time, be a good citizen, quit doomscrolling, and go outside.
Ad Astra Per Aspera!