America 2040: Exurbia rising
Urban areas are declining and the “exurbs” are booming
[AI generated image]
Also see
America 2040: the rent is to damn high
Key takeaways
The current migration from urban centers to exurbs in America is influenced by factors like high housing costs and enabled by remote work
Exurbs, defined as regions beyond city suburbs, offer a contrasting lifestyle and are gaining popularity
Urban areas face 'doom loops' of declining populations and revenues, exacerbating issues like crime and homelessness, further driving the exodus to exurbs
Technological advancements, particularly in remote work and autonomous vehicles, are facilitating this shift
The “Great Migration” occurred between 1916 and 1970, when approximately six million African Americans relocated from the rural Southern United States to the urban North and West. The influx in northern cities like Chicago, Detroit, New York, and Philadelphia contributed to rapid urbanization. This surge in population led to the expansion of urban areas and significant changes in the urban landscape, including housing and neighborhood structures.
Driven by a desire to escape oppressive segregationist laws, seek better employment opportunities, and flee racial violence, this mass movement led to profound demographic shifts. It significantly altered the cultural, social, and political landscapes of America, contributing to urbanization, economic changes, and the development of vibrant African American communities and cultures. This migration also had a lasting impact on the racial and political dynamics of the United States, laying the groundwork for the Civil Rights Movement and altering the country's socioeconomic fabric.
Today, a non-racial migration of a similar scale is happening in America. Facing crime, homelessness, sky-high housing costs and enabled by remote work and other technologies, people are migrating from urban centers to smaller communities known as “exurbs”. The socioeconomic, political, and other changes that will result from this migration are impossible to predict. In this post, we’ll discuss why this migration is happening and recommend how to prepare for it.
What is an “exurb”?
The Merriam-Webster dictionary defines an exurb as:
a region or settlement that lies outside a city and usually beyond its suburbs and that often is inhabited chiefly by well-to-do families
An example is the city of Lawrence, Kansas, which is about 40 miles from Kansas City and well beyond its suburbs.
To illustrate the difference in housing costs, let’s take another pair: San Francisco, CA and Tracy, CA. The median sale price of a home in San Francisco was $1,415,000 as of October 2023 versus $685,000 in Tracy[i]. You also get more for your money. The average home in San Francisco is 1150 square feet[ii] versus 2000+ square feet in Tracy[iii].
Urban doom loops
As people leave cities, a vicious cycle occurs, prompting more people to leave. For example, as people flee crime and homelessness, the city tax revenues will fall, resulting in the curtailment of local services, causing yet more crime and homelessness. As people flee, the local labor supply falls and businesses leave, eroding economic activity and tax revenue. These urban doom loops are happening all over America.
The new American geography
This migration is being enhanced by technological changes including the rise of remote work and will be further amplified by the coming autonomous vehicle (AV) revolution. In the past, people were willing to endure the hardships of the city because of the large number of high-paying jobs there. After the rise of remote work, those jobs can be done from anywhere, leaving fewer reasons to stay in the cities. In the future, AVs will allow people to do other things on their commute, like work. This will decrease the “cost” in time of a commute and allow people to live further from the office. AVs will further reduce the need to live in dense, expensive urban cores.
Preparing for exurbia
A regional “cluster” development plan should be created based on existing industry geography, universities, labor force, and other economic factors. This should be done both top-down, where a country-level plan provides recommendations, and bottom-up, where cities and regional economic development bodies advance their regions. An example of cluster mapping is as follows:
Figure 1: Example American manufacturing "clusters"[iv]
I grew up in a small town, not technically an exurb, but similar. We had a local daily newspaper that reported on local politics, high school sports, and other community issues. Reading the paper knit the small town together. Last week, back home for Thanksgiving, I learned that the local daily newspaper had gone out of business, just like thousands of others across the country. Like everyone else in America, people now read national news, social media, or listened to podcasts. Without a daily newspaper to tie the community together, the city felt more disconnected.
The roots of the mass extinction of local newspapers lie in the disruption of their advertising revenue-driven business model by Big Tech (discussed in the Information Warfare Era). Exurbia and democracy need local newspapers. The way to bring back local news is to allow newspapers to collectively bargain in negotiations against Big Tech. Lawmakers in Australia passed similar reforms and newspapers were helped. Congress needs to step in and promote small newspapers for exurbia to thrive.
As America heads towards 2040, with a major demographic shift from urban centers to the burgeoning exurbs, the future geography of the country will be radically different. This contemporary migration, driven by the quest for affordable living, safety, and the flexibility of remote work, mirrors the historic “Great Migration” in its impact on societal structures. To flourish in this new American geography, there's a pressing need for strategic regional planning, embracing technological advancements like autonomous vehicles, and revitalizing local communities, including the support of local journalism. The future of America's exurbs lies in carefully navigating these changes, ensuring sustainable development that honors the evolving preferences and needs of its residents.
[i] Redfin
[ii] https://journal.firsttuesday.us/home-sizes-are-growing-slowly-in-california/57728/#
[iii] Redfin
[iv] : https://tcf.org/content/commentary/revitalize-american-manufacturing-nurturing-industrial-commons/
The unprecedented and massive rise in violent crime as well as critically failing schools are the core reason for exurb growth and urban flight. The primary source of these failures are woefully bad District Attorney policies and urban schools that have become little more than day cares. Local elections matter and we are reaping those consequences.