The Battle for Eurasia

The New Cold War is here and the Free World is on its back foot

• China-Russia-Iran Nexus: An emerging alliance between China, Russia, and Iran is reshaping Eurasian geopolitics, challenging Western influence and control

• Strategic Resource Control: This axis controls vast reserves of oil, gas, minerals, and other resources, positioning itself as a dominant global power

• New Trade Routes: They are developing alternative trade routes like the Northern Sea Route and the International North-South Corridor to bypass Western-aligned pathways

• Strategic Realignment: The Free World must reestablish ties between Europe and Russia, formalize defense commitments in East Asia, and strengthen relations with India to counter the influence of China, Russia, and Iran

From Lisbon, Portugal in the west to Vladivostok, Russia in the east, Eurasia (the combination of Europe and Asia) is by far the largest landmass in the world. At 21 million sq mi and 12 time zones, the supercontinent is almost 7x the area of America. Eurasia contains over half of the world’s oil reserves, 75% of its gas reserves, and a significant share of gold and uranium reserves. Russia produces one-third of the world’s nickel, one-third of its wheat, and one-fifth of its timber. China produces 60% of the world’s rare earth minerals and is a manufacturing superpower.

Given this bounty, it has long been said that whoever controls Eurasia, controls the world. For that reason, it has long been American policy to prevent any one power from dominating Eurasia. That’s why America fought WW1, why America fought the Nazi’s and Imperial Japan in WW2, and why America fought the Soviet Union in the Cold War. It’s also why America must prevent an axis of China, Russia, Iran, and their allies from dominating Eurasia in the New Cold War.

In this post, I’m going to define the Battle for Eurasia, why it’s important, and how America can win.

The New Cold War

After the end of the Cold War in 1991, some thought that history was over and the West had won. Following a steady erosion of the post-Cold War order after the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, this delusion was shattered for good in February 2022, when Russia launched the largest land war since WW2 in Ukraine. The West, led by America, launched unprecedented economic sanctions against Russia, which after the passage of two years, have not only failed but also weakened the dollar’s role in the international financial system. Central banks have started buying gold in lieu of dollars, transactions are conducted in alternate currencies, and non-Western alliances like the BRICS are forming. Europe has stopped trading with Russia, forcing a tight embrace between Russia and China.

Iran has supplied drones to Russia for use in Ukraine, and North Korea has provided millions of artillery shellsto Russia for use in Ukraine, dwarfing Western support. The New Cold War (some call it Cold War II) also extends to the war in Israel. China, Russia, and Iran have placed their support behind Palestine, while the US backs Israel. The New Cold War is also a battle for hearts and minds in the court of public opinion and Joe Biden’s approval in the Middle East is 22%, while Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping sit at 44%, and 34%, respectively. At home, Biden has fallen from 59% approval before the war among Arab Americans to 17%.

New Silk Roads

New alliances in Eurasia are creating the opportunity for more direct transportation routes, control over which determines power in the 21^st century. The conflict between the West and Houthi Rebels in the Red Sea (backed by Iran, Russia, and China) is accelerating the adoption of these alternative routes. The Red Sea conflict disrupts trade through the Western-aligned Suez Canal.

In the arctic, the Russians are developing the Northern Sea Route as a faster, cheaper alternative to routes through the Western-aligned Suez Canal and the Strait of Malacca.

The Indians are helping Iran build a port that will enable the International North-South Corridor through the heart of Eurasia, again cutting out the Suez Canal.

One of China’s “Belt and Road Initiative” projects is an oil pipeline through Pakistan, a shortcut around the Western-aligned Strait of Malacca, which 80% of China’s oil currently transits.

These are only three examples of many ways new partners in Eurasia are rerouting global trade and energy flows.

How the Free World can win

The Free World should strengthen three beachheads on the supercontinent in the Battle for Eurasia: 1) Europe, 2) “Pacific Command”, and 3) India.

First, the US is on track to alienate Europe and must change course. After WW2, the US became Europe’s protector, primary through NATO, and ended thousands of years of bloody conflict between neighbors on the continent. But in response to the Ukraine War, the US severed trade, most importantly of natural gas, between Russia and Europe. The deindustrialization that has already begun will destroy economies, lower standards of living, and foster anti-American resentment in the not-too-distant future. The West must settle the war in Ukraine diplomatically, establish some type of relationship with Russia, and restore energy trade between Europe and Russia.

Second, the US should establish a formal “Pacific Command” in East Asia, and make formal defense commitments to our allies Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Australia and others. This alliance network is primarily focused on denying China free reign in Asia.

Third, America should prioritize ties with India, whose 1.4 billion population has already overtaken China and whose economy will surpass China later this century.

With these three beachheads on the Eurasian landmass, American can deny any alliance from dominating Eurasia.

None of this can occur without a strong US leading the world. America must reindustrialize and once again become the Arsenal of Democracy, backing up our diplomacy with military power supplied to our allies or applied directly.

The geopolitical struggle for control over Eurasia in the New Cold War underscores the importance of a comprehensive strategy in the world. The United States and its allies must recalibrate their approach to strengthen key regions: reestablishing diplomatic and economic ties between Russia and Europe, formalizing defense commitments in East Asia, and fostering robust relations with India. These measures are vital to counter the influence of an emerging axis of China, Russia, and Iran. By reinforcing these strategic beachheads and revitalizing its own industrial and military capabilities, America can effectively safeguard the Free World’s interests and win the Battle for Eurasia.