The Gathering Storm Update: Russian Insurrection

Yesterday, the 25,000+ strong Wagner mercenary group declared war on the Russian government, threatening to destabilize the country and Russian morale in Ukraine

Last fall, Ad Astra did a three-part series on the War in Ukraine. You can find those articles here, here, and here.

In 1917, the world was ensnarled by both WW1 and the Spanish Influenza pandemic. The Russian Empire, fighting for the Allies, made the conflict a two-front war for Germany, with the Eastern Front extending for 1,000 miles. Then in March 1917 there was a revolution in Russia and Tsar Nicholas II, the leader of the Russian Empire, lost power. In November 1917, the Bolsheviks led by Vladimir Lenin took power, establishing communism. Shortly thereafter, Russia withdrew from WW1. In August 1991, hardliners in Moscow attempted the failed overthrow of Mikhail Gorbachev, leader of the Soviet Union. Later that year on Christmas, the Soviet Union dissolved.

It is with that history of revolutions, coups, and collapses in mind that we turn to yesterday’s events in the Russian Federation. The Wagner Group, a 25,000 strong mercenary army led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, declared war on the Russian government, left Ukraine, and took over the Russian military Ukraine War HQ in Rostov.

In response, the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) mobilized the national guard in Moscow, activated contingency plan “Fortress”, and began physically digging up roads to Moscow. The government claimed that Wagner was undertaking a coup and criminally charged Prigozhin with treason. Today, the President of Belarus and Putin-ally Alexander Lukashenko negotiated an end to the immediate crisis with Prigozhin. In exchange for Wagner’s standdown, the Russian government would fire the Minister of Defense and drop all criminal charges on Yevgeny Prigozhin. But its clear now that the Russian government is weak, with implications for the war in Ukraine, Russia’s global footprint, and Putin’s grip on power.

Wagner Group

The Wagner Group is a mercenary outfit led by Putin’s old chef Yevgeny Prigozhin. Though not officially part of the army, the MoD often contracts with them to wage war on Russia’s behalf. They are a substantial part of Russian military power, with heavy involvement in Ukraine and around the world in places like Africa and the Middle East. In Ukraine, Wagner is thought to have lost 20,000 troops taking the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut in the fiercest battle of the 21^st century.

Wagner is made up of elite ex-soldiers and convicts. The group is known for its cultlike discipline, executing deserters and traitors with a sledgehammer. Wagner boss Prigozhin is somewhat of a hero among some in the Russian army and public, reportedly taking the Russian city of Rostov with minimal resistance.

A former convict who grew close to Putin after serving as his caterer in St. Petersburg, Prigozhin turned Wagner into a highly skilled military force that assisted Moscow's goals around the world from eastern Ukraine in 2014 to Syria, Libya, Mali and the Central African Republic.

Prigozhin has used the war in Ukraine to become one of Russia's most powerful and popular personalities, with Wagner opening recruitment centers all over the country. Wagner troops were the only Russian forces able to advance in Ukraine in nearly a year, taking the city of Bakhmut last month, and he has garnered a wide following for his firebrand, populist rhetoric against Russian elites.^[i]

Figure 1: Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin

Events of June 23, 2023

Yesterday, Prigozhin claimed that the Russian MoD attacked its camps in a social media video. The Russian government denies this, stating the video was a “false flag operation”. The Wagner group abandoned its positions in Ukraine and took over Rostov in Russia, the logistics hub for the war in Ukraine. With the vast majority of its troops in Ukraine, the MoD mobilized untested and questionably loyal national guard troops to defend Moscow. A large convoy of Wagner troops left for Moscow, Wagner forces shot down several Russian aircraft, and civil war seemed imminent. Then a deal was negotiated and Wagner forces were ordered back to their camps in Ukraine.

Status of Ukraine War

The lack of journalists embedded with either side has made the Russo-Ukrainian War hard to follow. Information operations from Russia and the West have made the fog of war especially thick. Frontlines have largely been static over the winter months and the world eagerly awaited Ukraine’s counteroffensive this summer. That counteroffensive recently began and hasn’t been going all that well. After a rocky start in 2022, Russia appeared to have the upper hand in 2023. Russia’s significantly larger population and artillery advantage put time on their side. A protracted frozen conflict and dysfunctional Ukrainian rump state were the most likely outcomes.

What Next?

Those things may still happen but the events of the past 24 hours show that the internal political situation in Russia is very unstable and the state is weak. History podcaster Dan Carlin tweeted:

Worth noting:unless Putin manages to neuter Wagner in the near future there's nothing that prevents this (or a THREAT to do this)again.I can't imagine Putin won't be working to undercut Wagner's leadership & power in the near future. It's a total threat to his authority isn't it?^[ii]

In social media videos, the public can be seen chanting “Wagner! Wagner! Wagner!” as the mercenaries left Rostov. If Putin does anything to Prigozhin will the public stand for it?

Although Russia is hostile to the US, the collapse of the state with the largest nuclear arsenal in the world would be extremely dangerous. Nuclear proliferation was the chief concern after the dissolution of the Soviet Union in the 1990s, with many experts saying the world was lucky to escape unscathed. A loose nuke in the hands of a rogue general or terrorist would be catastrophic.

There are two certain outcomes: the loss of global Russian power and the demoralization of Russian troops in Ukraine. Russia utilizes Wagner for all of its international power projection. It’s hard to see how Putin will trust Wagner after this. In Ukraine, will low level Russian troops want to risk death for a government that may fall? Will Ukraine use this chaos to their advantage? The fate of the Ukraine War, Russia’s war to lose until yesterday, is very much uncertain.

Finally, it was a surreal experience yesterday to watch this unfold, including watching videos of tanks on the streets of Moscow, on Twitter. I flipped through cable news – CNN, MSNBC, Fox News – and nobody was covering it. All three channels were discussing domestic politics, with predictable biases. America was so caught up in its internal conflicts that a historically significant event and one that might significantly affect us was being ignored.

One wonders if that’s by design.

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^[i] WSJ

^[ii] @HardcoreHistory