US Grand Strategy: India
The indispensable US ally in the 21st-century
This is the India installment in Ad Astra’s American grand strategy for a multipolar world. The series contains 7 white papers: 2 global policies and 5 country-level strategies.
1. Introduction
2. Global trading alliance network
3. China
4. Russia
5. Middle East
6. Mexico
7. India
India surpassed China in 2023 as the world’s most populous country, at 1.4 billion citizens. By 2050, its population could be as high as 1.7 billion[i] according to the UN. For better or worse, India is a massive democracy and its people will determine its trajectory in the 21st-century. It looms so large in its region that US defense planners now refer to the surrounding region as the “Indo-Pacific” rather than as the WW2-era “Pacific”.
India also shares a disputed 2,200-mile land border with China, longer than the US southern border. It has a $136 billion trade relationship with China[ii]. It also has a $40 billion trade relationship with Russia[iii]. Notably, the Russian relationship includes significant quantities of discounted oil formerly bound for Europe (India did not participate in Western sanctions over the Ukraine War). It has a military equipment procurement relationship with Russia going back to the 1960s and is often the largest arms buyer in the world. It is also a member of the anti-China Quad defensive alliance with America, Australia, and Japan. India’s foreign policy can be described as a repeat of its “Non-Aligned” playbook during the Cold War, where it intentionally did not side with the US or Soviets.
US grand strategy in the 21st-centrury must be to get India to join the US-led bloc in the showdown with China. To do so, it can use economic inducements and amplify existing anti-Chinese sentiment in India. The two national interests in US foreign policy with India are: 1) working to counter Chinese ambitions in the region and 2) developing a mutually beneficial economic relationship.
India-China
India gained independence in 1947, followed by China in 1948. Initially, the two countries shared a kinship with their opposition to colonialism, but gradually border disputes soured the relationship. India and China fought a war over their border in 1969, which China won, capturing the Aksai Chin region which it retains to this day. Acrimony over the border continued into the 21st-century and in 2020 hostilities broke out over the border again, with combat fatalities on both sides.
Today, India is wary of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which seeks to fund infrastructure projects in return for Chinese influence. In particular, India is opposed to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a flagship project of the BRI, which passes through Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, a territory claimed by India. To counter the BRI, India hasn't launched equivalent infrastructure projects. However, India has been involved in multiple regional infrastructure and connectivity initiatives, both bilaterally and as part of larger multilateral frameworks.
Both nations possess large, powerful militaries with China possessing the world’s largest standing army at 2 million men and India at 1.4 million men. The Chinese military budget is the 2nd largest in the world, after the US. India has the 3rd largest military budget in the world, notably spending more than Russia. Both countries possess nuclear weapons, with each having the nuclear triad (land, air, and sea launch capabilities). China has been rapidly expanding its naval capabilities, with a focus on aircraft carriers, submarines, and advanced missile systems. India has a blue-water navy with aircraft carriers, submarines (including nuclear-powered ones), and other modern naval vessels. The Indian Navy emphasizes safeguarding the Indian Ocean region.
The Chinese military doctrine emphasizes 'winning local wars in the information age,' indicating a focus on technology and network-centric warfare. India emphasizes a two-front war doctrine, preparing for potential conflicts with both Pakistan and China. Both nations have also focused on asymmetric capabilities, including cyber warfare, space assets, and electronic warfare. Escalating geopolitical tensions in the Indo-Pacific region has led both nations to increase their military capabilities.
India 2050
India has the potential to be the country of the future, and by 2050 its GDP will grow 10x from 2023 to $20 trillion, surpassing collective Europe. It’s projected to be the largest country in the world for the rest of the 21st-century and will possess a massive consumer market. Likewise, its exports are growing as firms shift supply chains out of China. Foxconn, a major Apple supplier, has announced it will double its investments in India by 2024.[iv] Foxconn already has an iPhone factory in the state of Tamil Nadu, which employs 40,000 people.
Figure 1: Forecast Indian GDP growth
US-India policy
The US must start with reforming the global security architecture, which was created when India was a brand-new country after WW2 and is out of date for a multipolar world. India must be granted a permanent seat on the UN Security Council. Doing so will not only help US-India relations, but also make inroads with the Global South, where the US has lost much credibility since the end of the Cold War. The US should also partner with the Indian Space Agency, which has a superb space program, landing on the lunar south pole in 2023.
Its powerful military and pre-existing geopolitical orientation make India an indispensable ally in the struggle to counter Chinese aggression. The US should pursue a formal military alliance and foster interoperability with the Indian military. The US should seek to supplant Russia as India’s primary arms dealer, offering discounts if necessary. This will also help revitalize a moribund US defense industry.
Economic cooperation is the biggest opportunity for cooperation between India and the US in the 21st-century. The US should make India a principal trade ally, and direct the US private sector to make large investments there. The US government should incentivize companies to move their supply chains from China to India. Closer economic integration will mean closer government-to-government ties.
The overriding US goal of exporting goods to the global middle class finds an ideal partner in this rapidly growing, massive market. Specifically, trade in agricultural goods, LNG, petrochemical products, and aerospace equipment are key US exports that rapidly modernizing India needs. Close technology partnerships should be fostered, particularly between Silicon Valley and the Indian tech hub of Bangalore. People-to-people exchanges should be expanded and have already borne fruit, with 60 Fortune 500 CEOs already being of Indian origin[v](well above what should be statistically expected).
The dynamic between the US and India in the 21st-century holds the potential to shape the geopolitical landscape. With shared democratic values, both countries stand as beacons of political stability amidst regional tensions. The US's vision of a free and open Indo-Pacific converges with India's aspirations, presenting an opportunity to foster an unparalleled strategic partnership. Beyond security and geopolitical considerations, the intersection of the world's largest consumer markets can boost global economic growth. Navigating the delicate balance of India's non-alignment history and its burgeoning role on the global stage requires nuanced diplomacy. As India rises, its significance in global affairs will only grow, making its partnership with the US indispensable for a balanced and prosperous future. It is incumbent upon both nations to recognize the vast potential of their partnership and to act with foresight, cultivating a relationship that stands resilient against the tests of time and geopolitics.
Conclusion
This comprehensive analysis of the United States' grand strategy in response to the Ukraine War and the emergence of a new world order highlights several key points. This new era demands a strategic reorientation of US foreign policy to address the challenges of a multipolar world. This involves aligning foreign policy goals with domestic economic objectives, such as exporting goods to the global middle class, and adopting a realistic approach in international affairs, moving away from moralistic stances. The US must exemplify its values domestically while pragmatically engaging with the world as it is, not as it ideally should be.
The shift from unipolarity to multipolarity necessitates a nuanced understanding of relative power dynamics. The US must prevent any one power or alliance, notably the Russia-China axis, from dominating Eurasia, following Sir Halford Mackinder's Heartland Theory. Additionally, the US must maintain its dominance in naval power and expand this to space, recognizing the vital role of these domains in global power structures.
Furthermore, the strategy must address the demographic trends of the 21st century, particularly depopulation and its implications for labor markets and global welfare systems. The US must adapt to these changes by shifting its military force posture to focus on 21st century foes.
In terms of foreign policy ideologies, realism emerges as the preferred approach in a multipolar world. This requires the US to engage with the world based on interests rather than values, a significant shift from the post-Cold War liberal internationalism. However, the US must continue to be the "city on the hill," demonstrating the strengths of its free and open society, which contradicts the autocratic systems of its rivals.
The US response to the Ukraine War is critical in shaping its global standing. Strengthening the Russia-China alliance, as a consequence of sanctioning Russia, must be avoided. Instead, the US should use this inflection point to realign its foreign policy and ensure it remains a dominant global power in the face of rising multipolarity and the challenges it brings.
This strategic reorientation requires the US to forge new alliances, embrace economic innovations, and maintain military and technological superiority, all while exemplifying its democratic values at home and abroad. The strategy laid out in these papers offers a blueprint for the US to navigate the complexities of the 21st century, ensuring its security, prosperity, and global leadership in an increasingly interconnected and competitive world.
[i] https://population.un.org/wpp/Graphs/DemographicProfiles/Line/356
[ii] https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/foreign-trade/india-china-trade-climbs-to-usd-135-98-billion-in-2022-trade-deficit-crosses-usd-100-billion-for-the-first-time/articleshow/96969775.cms?from=mdr
[iii] https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/foreign-trade/india-russia-trade-hit-a-record-39-8-billion-in-202223-spief-director/articleshow/99197642.cms?from=mdr
[iv] https://www.reuters.com/technology/foxconn-aims-double-jobs-investment-india-over-next-12-months-2023-09-17/
[v] https://www.cnbctv18.com/business/companies/what-makes-indian-origin-ceos-rise-to-the-top-of-fortune-500-companies-14446172.htm#