US Grand Strategy: Saudi Arabia and Iran
US Grand Strategy: Saudi Arabia and Iran
In a region with no satisfying solutions, America should back Saudi Arabia and contain Iran
This is the Middle East installment in Ad Astra’s American grand strategy for a multipolar world. The series contains 7 white papers: 2 global policies and 5 country-level strategies.
1. Introduction
2. Global trading alliance network
3. China
4. Russia
5. Middle East
6. Mexico
7. India
There are no good answers in the Middle East, no satisfying solutions. Trying to create peace there has eluded every US president since WW2. The new calculus of a multipolar world will introduce new challenges and new dynamics. A foreign policy of realistic restraint is essential in the region and the US has three national interests: 1) keep global oil prices low, 2) counter the influence of China, and 3) and contain Iran.
Almost all of the region’s conflicts can be traced back to the rivalry between Sunni Saudi Arabia and Shi’a Iran. Iran supports proxies including but not limited to Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, Hamas in the Palestinian territories, and insurgents that have killed US troops in Iraq and Afghanistan. The Saudi’s have conducted extraterritorial assassinations and inadvertently fueled the religious sect that enabled 9/11. There are no “good guys” in the middle east, only interests.
Nowhere is this rivalry more dangerous for the world than in the pursuit of nuclear weapons. Either Saudi Arabi or Iran acquiring a nuclear weapon would preclude a land invasion of their territory and massively destabilize the region. Preventing Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon has been the long-term policy of the US, but the policy to do so has alternated by the party in power in America. The time it takes for Iran to develop a nuclear weapon, its “breakout time”, has shrunk to weeks[i]. If Iran ever developed an atom bomb, it is expected that Saudi Arabia, a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), which legally prevents it from having a nuclear weapons program, would use its oil wealth to buy a nuclear weapon(s) from Pakistan.
Into this toxic mix of religious conflict and nuclear ambition strode China, America’s primary geopolitical rival, who brokered a detente between Saudi Arabia and Iran in 2023. China imports most of its oil and needs a stable Middle East and Iran’s sanctioned oil output to power its economy. Influence in the Middle East will directly impact the US-China rivalry and maintaining influence is a vital US national interest.
Multipolarity in the Middle East
China brokering a detente between long-time enemies Saudi Arabia and Iran signaled a seismic geopolitical shift in the region. In the wake of Hamas’s brutal terror attack on Israel on 10/7/23, the Iranian President called the Saudi Crown Prince to express the need for Arab solidarity against Israel. It was clear that the post-1979 Middle East was dead and the world was dealing with a new Middle East in an era of great power competition.
Before the terrorist attack on 10/7/23, the New October War, Saudi Arabia was showing signs of progress towards a US-brokered peace with Israel. Such a deal would marginalize Palestine, and Iran-backed Hamas staged the largest terror attack in Israel’s history to ensure a Saudi-Israel deal would not happen. Saudi Arabia, previously a close US ally, was now aligned with Iran, China, the Palestinians, and a pan-Arab population against the US. As of this writing, a wider regional war is possible and China has aligned itself with the Arab states.
China’s interest in the Middle East stems from its need for oil. Unlike self-sufficient America, China imports about two-thirds of the oil it uses, much from the Middle East. China has two interests in the region: 1) physical security of oil supplies and 2) relative regional stability to keep the oil price low.
Figure 1: China's economic leverage in the Middle East
China is not the only great power in the Middle East. Russian and Saudi cooperation through OPEC+ on oil production has kept supply constrained and oil prices high. Saudi Arabia and Russia are the 2nd and 3rd largest oil producers in the world, respectively. Saudi Arabia’s massive infrastructure investment allows it to be the global swing producer and set oil prices globally. It is for this reason that America must have good relations with Saudi Arabia. There have been reports that Russia, through its Wagner mercenary group, is supplying arms to Iran-backed militia in the region during the ongoing Israel-Hamas war[ii].
Clash of civilizations
The roots of Christian-Islamic conflict go back to Abraham in the Old Testament. Christian-Islamic clashes caused the Crusades. The rise and fall of the Islamic Ottoman empire continued the clash of civilizations through WW1. A low boiling West vs Islamic fight after WW2 erupted into the multi-decade Global War on Terror (GWOT) after 9/11/2001. Some say in 2023 that the GWOT has given way to great power competition, but that doesn’t mean the clash between the West and Islam is finished. The events of the New October War suggest that this clash will be weaponized in great power competition.
The primary modern tactic of Western-Islamic clash is terrorism, asymmetric violence against non-military targets in the West. This levels the playing field somewhat between the awesome technological power of the West and less advanced Islamic fighters. The radicalization of primarily young men to fundamentalist strains of Islam is driven by 3 factors: 1) widespread disaffection due to lack of economic opportunity across the Arab world, 2) the power of the internet to recruit fighters and coordinate terrorist activity, and 3) backlash to excesses in the GWOT by America.
First, the US must foster economic prosperity through trade and investment across the Arab world. Second, the US must make enduring investments in combatting radicalism online and balance that fight with the protection of fundamental digital rights at home. Third, the excesses of the GWOT are varied and well-known. For example, the London Bureau of Investigative Journalism estimates that between 855 and 2055 civilians have been killed in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Somalia, and Yemen by US drone strikes between 2002 and 2020[iii]. The US must do a better job of modeling its principles and being the “city on a hill”.
Silicon Desert
A solution to the Israel-Palestine conflict has eluded the world since Israel’s founding in 1948 and affects US-Arab relations in other areas. Instead of seeking a comprehensive deal to permanently solve the crisis, the US should seek to make long-term, incremental progress. The model should be normalizing relations between Israel and the Arab world to pair Israel’s high-tech, start-up economy with oil wealth from the Gulf states. The goal should be to create an ecosystem like Silicon Valley in the US, the “Silicon Desert”. Ties with Silicon Valley should also be cultivated. Progress should be undertaken to reform the governance of Gaza and the West Bank so that institutional money (Western, Arab, Chinese, etc.) can be utilized on infrastructure investments to help the Palestinian people.
US Middle East policy
The US must restore relations with Saudi Arabia, which have deteriorated in recent years. The US won’t have as much influence in a multipolar world as during the unipolar 1991-2008 period but US-Saudi relations during the Trump Administration (2017-2021) show that good relations with the Kingdom can exist in a multipolar world. The US should make Saudi Arabia a tier 3 economic partner in the Global Trading Federation (GTF, see paper #2) and direct investment into the Kingdom. Energy, technology, aerospace, and finance are good areas to partner. Congress should approve the LIV Golf merger with the PGA, which represents a large investment into the US. The US should continue and expand its security relationship with the Kingdom, providing state-of-the-art defensive armaments. A Saudi-Israel peace deal brokered by the US should be the goal of US policy.
Long-term, it is in the US’s interest to have a detente with Iran, but in the short-term, the ruling regime has shown it cannot be trusted. Therefore, the US should impose maximum pressure through economic sanctions and hard power on Iran until a diplomatic opening is possible or the regime changes. The US Navy should strictly enforce sanctions against Iranian oil exports in the Persian Gulf. Unlike Russia and China, the ruling regime is weak as evidenced by frequent protests and public opinion data, which show that 80% of the population is against the ruling regime[iv]. Iranians are also leaving the country in droves, with asylum applications growing 141% from 2020 to 2021[v]. The Iranian people are the US’s greatest weapon in confronting Iran.
In the complex web of the Middle East, where historical clan, sectoral, and tribal rivalries intersect with modern geopolitics, the US faces a daunting challenge in safeguarding its national interests. While the allure of a definitive solution is tempting, the region demands a nuanced, adaptive approach that respects its complexities. As the US navigates a multipolar world, with China and Russia making significant inroads to the region, it's imperative that the US respond strategically and realistically. Fostering genuine partnerships, championing economic prosperity, and standing as the “city on a hill” will not only further US interests but also contribute to a more stable and prosperous Middle East.
1. Introduction
2. Global trading alliance network
3. China
4. Russia
5. Middle East
6. Mexico
7. India
[i] https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1631033500689223683?s=20
[ii] https://www.wsj.com/world/russias-wagner-group-may-provide-air-defense-weapon-to-hezbollah-u-s-intel-says-37dc8f45?st=vrspi2qvca9znrj&reflink=article_email_share
[iii] https://www.thebureauinvestigates.com/stories/2017-01-01/drone-wars-the-full-data
[iv] https://www.iranintl.com/en/202302036145
[v] Financial Times